tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-61453881928808605962024-03-13T13:02:09.390-04:00Market Position TradingDaily commentary on positioning for gains in the market regardless of current trends.
Stocks, trading, market, markets, stock charts, stock trading, investing, investC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.comBlogger189125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-90849277267806656802014-02-03T11:21:00.000-05:002014-02-03T11:21:28.671-05:00I believe the "IT" has begunI haven't posted for a long time, but didn't really see the need to. There probably aren't many left to read this.<br />
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I believe a cycle of events that will ultimately result in an implosion of both the emerging markets and specifically in the implosion of Japan and it's massive government debt is beginning. In a way, what is about to occur in the world is a long time coming and is somewhat the fault of Japan. They led the way early in how to avoid the pain of actually reducing governement costs and controlling debt and instead developed the equivalent of financial 3 card monty in order to allow the game to continue through the use of QE and other methods of tricking the market into believing that they were still a high quality borrrower. <br />
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8 months ago I wrote a short essay, noting that Japan would lead the way and it would start with the Yen entering a deflationary period of strength. I believe that is starting now.<br />
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I do not know how long it will last, but I suspect the Yen will continue gaining strength, even as the Japanese government will, I'm sure, initiate more shock and awe QE programs in attempts to reverse course. I believe they will now fail, as I am now certain that they have lost all control and credability as a central bank.<br />
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This will cause massive damage to world markets as the Yen carry trade is unraveled. <br />
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But the damage caused by the carry will just be an appetizer to the ultimate collapse of Japan and possibly even debt collapse in China. Debt may also collapse many emerging markets that have followed the lead of Japan and the United States. <br />
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I hope this crisis at least results in new thinking here in the United States relative to debt and central banking and that the likely destruction of Japan's economy somehow saves our future.<br />
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C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-35247225473534306122013-06-06T22:33:00.001-04:002013-06-06T22:42:53.243-04:00Preview of America, how the Yen will go from Priceless to Worthless<span lang=""><strong>How the Yen will go from priceless to worthless</strong></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: xx-small;"> </span><span style="font-size: small;">A long time ago in the early days of the housing collapse, I participated on a forum for economic discussion to talk about the danger hidden within our banking system. A contributor that went by the screen name of NoThing had an interesting theory. Her, (at least we think she was female), theory in the shortest form possible is that during an economic collapse, that is created by excess debt, the currency will go through 2 polar final stages where initially the currency slowly rises in value and then shoots sharply to a very brief moment of time where it is nearly priceless and then this state is followed suddenly by a collapse where it is shredded into toilet paper. <br />
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For some of you, the first thought might be,.. "That's not what happened in Weimar Germany." Which would be correct, except we aren't talking about a hyperinflationary collapse, we are talking about a DEFLATIONARY collapse.<br />
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Your next thought might be,.. "How will the currency collapse in a deflationary environment?" <br />
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Inherently, deflation is caused by a reduction in available credit, reduced velocity of money, and a steady slide in prices as a result. Deflation becomes a mindset of "Why should I buy XXX when XXX is going to be cheaper 6 months from now." People hoard money, no one borrows because the principal becomes increasingly more expensive to pay off, and competition from retailers for your money drives prices lower.<br />
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That is Ben Bernanke's nightmare. <br />
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But I digress, lets get back to the question at hand,.. how will the currency collapse in such an environment? Increased bond yields, decreased velocity of money and a contraction of credit should all result in increased value of your currency as less becomes available.<br />
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The answer is simple, it will collapse because the crisis was caused by excess debt. <br />
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At the time in our discussions, we did not foresee to what extreme the central bank would go in order to try to "fix" the problem. We simply saw massive amounts of excess debt piled up in an asset class that was a bursting bubble. Conspiracy theories aside, had nothing been done, half the banking system would have collapsed and a deflationary crunch would have ensued. However, ... we MAY have survived. At the time, our national debt was 30% lower than it is today and a reset of prices lower may have eventually repaired our country to a degree after some short term severe pain. Much like Japan though, this was not the path we chose.<br />
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Japan is a preview of the future of the United States.<br />
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Japan has a long standing demographic problem of an aging population. The United States has 10,000 baby boomers retiring a day. Japan had a housing bubble and resulting real estate crash in the late 80's and early 90's. The United States had a housing bubble and resulting crash in 2007. Japan has spent 19 years trying to slay the deflation boogey man and as a result has compiled a national debt that is in excess of 250% of GDP. The United States has used both debt monetization and huge budget deficits to try to stimulate the economy in order to slay the deflation boogey man and now has national debt that is nearing 110% of GDP.<br />
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If deflation is creeping into your economy because of excess debt defaulting, the worst thing you can do for the long term future of your economy is try to fix the problem by using more debt.<br />
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The past sins of Japanese central planners are coming back to haunt them now. They are losing control because they have exhausted their credibility. It took a long long time, but here they are. Had they taken the pain a long long time ago, what would Japan be like today? No one really knows... but what we do know is that they chose to avoid the pain and to try to delay it into infinity through the use of the printing press and excess debt. There is no way they can survive now. If they lose the last little bit of control they have left, the card on the bottom has been pulled. There is no saving them with national debt at 250% of GDP. They will default.<br />
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But first, the Yen will spend awhile on the rise because deflation will finally win. Japanese rates will rise, the Yen will rise, prices will fall in Japan. <br />
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The rise in the Yen will continue along with bond yields until credit and velocity of money grinds to a hault. The hoarding will then begin and be followed by the great collapse of a nation and their currency in a relative instantaneous hyperinflation.<br />
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This is our own future and we are going to watch it happen right in front of our eyes.<br />
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I hope congress is watching and that it opens some of theirs. </span>C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-53099292771876405392012-08-08T22:39:00.001-04:002012-08-08T22:41:38.218-04:0008.08.2012 -- Topping or break out..My 7 month old got hand, foot and mouth disease. Its a virus sort of like chicken pox, you only get it bad once. Its not fun. They cant sleep, so therefore, neither do you.<br />
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Short answer here for an update is that we are either on the verge of a breakout or breakdown.<br />
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There are quite a few arguments against breakout.<br />
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1) Volume is pathetic<br />
2) Earnings have damaged quite a few previous growth leaders<br />
3) Lots of divergences (DJT, Russel 2000, SOX) .. all lagging the S&P and DOW<br />
4) Lots of falling RSI's on rising indicies<br />
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.. that said.. the market is basically ignoring anything negative. Anything negative just means more QE. Its all about flow... there's just a lot of money that needs to go somewhere. Central banks around the world and just crapping money and it has to be put somewhere. Always remember that cash is a liability on a bank balance sheet. Even if the investment earns negative return, think Swiss T-bonds which have a negative yield, it's better than having cash for the bank because it's still considered an asset on the balance sheet even at a negative yield. (which is kind of stupid btw) but this is a new world and a new situation with new rules.<br />
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I'm not going to bother posting a chart tonight. My focus is not on super short term movements anyways.<br />
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1422 is a line in the sand here. After 1422... flow takes over and just massive amounts of money that needs to go somewhere other than cash could push this thing to new all time highs. Even when you have Rosendickbag on TV saying they should do endless QE. <br />
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This is a mess folks. It really is..<br />
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You have insane monetary policy pushing money into assets with a economy that refuses to respond and the money that should be driving inflation higher to stop the insanity, is doing nothing except driving stocks, PMs and energy prices higher.<br />
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Guess what... stocks, PM's and energy are not in the calculations for inflation measures.<br />
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We could totally crash sometime soon... or we could end up with the S&P at 1600, Gold at 2500, and Oil at 175$ a barrel.<br />
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Japan is our only reference for what might happen going forward here... but their situation was just different. So much so, that I don't think it can serve as any frame of reference for what will occur here.<br />
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Long story short... we can go to new highs... or we can crash. Either way... over a long period of time... nothing good will come of whats happening now. It will be all bad.<br />
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I predict right now that 95% of people currently in their 30's and younger (and some in their 40's) will never retire and be destitute in their "golden" years. 30 years from now the US will be full of poor old people. Very different from now. The US will ultimately resort to what many asian countries do. The grandparents (those in their 30's now) will move back in with their children to raise their childrens kids while their kids work. Not completely by choice but mostly out of necessity for both parties.<br />
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I formally declare this market and country as being FUBAR'ed.<br />
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GL<br />
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CJ<br />
<br />C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-3071148894030403302012-08-02T20:13:00.002-04:002012-08-02T20:13:48.029-04:0008.03.2012 -- Short term pivotsToday confirmed what I suspected, and the last chart in yesterdays post is significant. I finally figured out what pivots/trends that this short term move is using.<br />
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Not much else to add really except that it still feels like the PPT is involved here, likely due to the elections coming up. Obama certainly does not want a market falling apart into November, so much will be done behind the scenes to keep it as presentable as possible. With so much poor economic news, downward GDP revisions, Spainish and Italian bonds falling apart again, the FED disappointing.. certainly didn't expect to see the S&P still sitting at 1368 after all that. Even add on top the general loss in market confidence with the Libor scandal and Knight Capital HFT SNAFU.<br />
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Anyways.. here's the short term pivots/trends to watch. Until these are broken north or south, we will just bounce around inside them.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-kwmsXXOe0_hQqgLtQoZ86nGgdBvTpttSr7xx4V9y_M27v2aJ2NM8EIlcX0RmNjpgaOkRQzr3S2CP16Fq-uFzavBcMwAIUgyvxRkZLK5dLwNfpUkdw_MWtZx6s19Tc376o75sy0Cfpv5C/s1600/08032012_SPXHourly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-kwmsXXOe0_hQqgLtQoZ86nGgdBvTpttSr7xx4V9y_M27v2aJ2NM8EIlcX0RmNjpgaOkRQzr3S2CP16Fq-uFzavBcMwAIUgyvxRkZLK5dLwNfpUkdw_MWtZx6s19Tc376o75sy0Cfpv5C/s320/08032012_SPXHourly.png" width="320" /></a></div>C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-60557412577475690922012-08-01T21:17:00.001-04:002012-08-01T21:41:25.729-04:0008.01.2012 - 1368 first stopNo real change from yesterday. Not a lot of market movement.<br />
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I will say though, there are some important sectors that have been underperforming the entire ramp and this selloff. <br />
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Today for example, DOW down 37, S&P down 4. <br />
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The NAS was down 19 or .66%, the Russel 2000 was down 1.65% and the DOW Trannies were down 2%.<br />
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The only area that seems to be doing o.k. that is a growth indicator is the SOX. <br />
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Next movement is still up in the air... but we at least appear to be targeting 1368 before the next movement decision;<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjFRKsR0NxRDYcubFoNQt0FSpGFio_Rf15lb2nFvkXR-uwAbweW3wP1rc28y2SSCuIzKSd0CKLcu_dPrHXZIAIGh05F8-ZElP2ZFtkcJRweDNLY_9effM7BEuKQDjp9QY96o2Rc26-4MS4/s1600/08012012_SPXHourly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjFRKsR0NxRDYcubFoNQt0FSpGFio_Rf15lb2nFvkXR-uwAbweW3wP1rc28y2SSCuIzKSd0CKLcu_dPrHXZIAIGh05F8-ZElP2ZFtkcJRweDNLY_9effM7BEuKQDjp9QY96o2Rc26-4MS4/s320/08012012_SPXHourly.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Was messing around and these also look like important trend lines short term;</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJNTZd2KcpwvN9SI69njpAQqqHbsruTSrhoyCYs00MAAXefhcjRtZz7GRzgtwdYviwICWZ7PrdBr9JfrUvQPD2OyVWgdals0s5vxLr_p0g10w72TijWhyjWWGUJ0Hs6rwXIAfKXZ-87fRr/s1600/08012012_SPXDaily2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJNTZd2KcpwvN9SI69njpAQqqHbsruTSrhoyCYs00MAAXefhcjRtZz7GRzgtwdYviwICWZ7PrdBr9JfrUvQPD2OyVWgdals0s5vxLr_p0g10w72TijWhyjWWGUJ0Hs6rwXIAfKXZ-87fRr/s320/08012012_SPXDaily2.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-84648015173915520282012-07-31T21:17:00.000-04:002012-07-31T21:17:01.746-04:0007.31.2012 - Dual pattern..So, I tried to make sense of the short term chart. The SPX hourly over a 10 week period. I couldn't make heads or tails of it, which is pretty rare. Usually I can find a dominant pattern, but its just chaos. There's no less than 10 different channels, wedges, megaphones, etc. that you could make on it. So for now, I'm just avoiding it. Short term, I have no idea whats going to happen. <br />
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I did find something of interest though in the daily and weekly charts.<br />
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The Daily chart ( 7 months ) and Weekly chart ( 7 years ) are sporting the exact same pattern. It's actually quite striking how similar they are.<br />
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The only problem is that both patterns are at the same exact point in their development. So there's nothing to foreshadow. <br />
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What I can say though, is whatever happens next will be confirmed in all 3 longer term timeframes. The Monthly, Weekly and Daily. Because they are all sporting the same pattern.<br />
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Here they are;<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXE3vw6ayCbsZU5GWz6ALelTSUD37M0X9lmBw-b31PGIDR75VjkicC4xBIo5Qnv9A7xITz9rRqU3OwGBPCAZIDsC2zXvg0ZHkDjVU-SVzdI8TDQdCjGA8RYbEUqiKGkFI9LXFMBVlhFqjV/s1600/07312012_S&PDaily.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXE3vw6ayCbsZU5GWz6ALelTSUD37M0X9lmBw-b31PGIDR75VjkicC4xBIo5Qnv9A7xITz9rRqU3OwGBPCAZIDsC2zXvg0ZHkDjVU-SVzdI8TDQdCjGA8RYbEUqiKGkFI9LXFMBVlhFqjV/s320/07312012_S&PDaily.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirvM6bEpfiUXzQPWin4ioxmzkX0kqDLMenf44SMhEOQZVoPGGuLuTChV1oaPsKbWCqCW19WNTZqfYj_x6eXP52OTP3-Zsj_5d9YHswz8yJUd4XXYHqkgAXqR47PQWlgubkxYMx7cbhXkIP/s1600/07312012_SPXWeekly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirvM6bEpfiUXzQPWin4ioxmzkX0kqDLMenf44SMhEOQZVoPGGuLuTChV1oaPsKbWCqCW19WNTZqfYj_x6eXP52OTP3-Zsj_5d9YHswz8yJUd4XXYHqkgAXqR47PQWlgubkxYMx7cbhXkIP/s320/07312012_SPXWeekly.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-58761567919157461052012-07-29T15:02:00.001-04:002012-07-29T15:03:58.006-04:00Weekend updateThe following chart will pretty much show everything that needs to be shown right now for the short term. If the S&P gets past 1402, we'll be heading for new highs and potentially all time highs through the election.<br />
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There are still lots of reasons on the longer term charts to think this is a fake out though. Including all the Daily, weekly and monthly charts for the S&P rising with a falling RSI for quite awhile now.<br />
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But for now, Friday was a strong day, lots of growth stocks (like AMZN??) powering ahead. <br />
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The market obviously believes we are going to get a strong round of Fed intervention soon.<br />
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Heres the short term chart (SPX hourly)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrCliBM_anK6FZi8leuqPN9KKN0hWpqt5yktQaMH5WxUFd18Hy3C2Rxi6uLMLHadMx3ljxTZxcgMQbSX4Yds4vnj1nITwKuQ2LrUkkla1XDgeldCnUCteisoeTNcSsbN2j3Sg3A0xR1DBK/s1600/07292012_SPXhourly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhrCliBM_anK6FZi8leuqPN9KKN0hWpqt5yktQaMH5WxUFd18Hy3C2Rxi6uLMLHadMx3ljxTZxcgMQbSX4Yds4vnj1nITwKuQ2LrUkkla1XDgeldCnUCteisoeTNcSsbN2j3Sg3A0xR1DBK/s320/07292012_SPXhourly.png" width="320" /></a></div>C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-39643487441399760262012-07-26T21:26:00.000-04:002012-07-26T21:36:00.173-04:0007.26.2012 -- Trading N stuffThings are settling down with my newest family additions and I'm going to get this going again, however, it will be in a shorter format than my previous posts with less commentary except maybe a commentary only post over the weekend.
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Since this is the first post in awhile, I will do a quick update here.
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Lots of growth leaders are breaking down while this market still feels like it wants to break higher. Growth stocks, especially ones that have been hot, are getting hammered on missed earnings.
FB, NFLX, CMG, ZNGA to name a few have gotten seriously pounded. 20%+ smashings.
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The market is stuck between QE3 expectations and worsening economic data.
The close today was very interesting. Most would have guessed that we rallied handily back into previous wedges and back over support lines.
This actually doesn't appear to be the case. It looks like a back test.
The following charts are SPX cash in 3 timelines.. Weekly, Daily and Hourly. The daily and hourly show how we appear to have completed a backtest at the moment unless we manage to have another decent day tomorrow.
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Charts;
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh49XiA7THVNMkBN49H5MJBGC_xdlA0_4NRFp5pCFueOhISlPlB-klGu2UQCEEawREMF9gcx0dxq1BAv-mVWTxZcdji4ZqCnfYuzdiD-QFeacwnNUYhhpt8ihmTfalJJiGKHbjPibId4Yeu/s1600/07262012_SPXWeekly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh49XiA7THVNMkBN49H5MJBGC_xdlA0_4NRFp5pCFueOhISlPlB-klGu2UQCEEawREMF9gcx0dxq1BAv-mVWTxZcdji4ZqCnfYuzdiD-QFeacwnNUYhhpt8ihmTfalJJiGKHbjPibId4Yeu/s320/07262012_SPXWeekly.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg0ilZQwf1dKGvBBOuP9dQSMTSnkNcNxUZlIjjSf9kihGVd0Cno83q-ytY-v8IVEv9MRf5NZhH-SVOZP0DvS7Vp6AjuVwdSX5_t1_uQ5JW8LglAyEge07iWdj2n9z-qKAqX8rOjVjT2Mne/s1600/07262012_SPXDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjg0ilZQwf1dKGvBBOuP9dQSMTSnkNcNxUZlIjjSf9kihGVd0Cno83q-ytY-v8IVEv9MRf5NZhH-SVOZP0DvS7Vp6AjuVwdSX5_t1_uQ5JW8LglAyEge07iWdj2n9z-qKAqX8rOjVjT2Mne/s320/07262012_SPXDaily.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5LKNfhBhx17tdRi1Au-sv-PUr4y5ozSE8b4tqMUA-uLS88Vmq_t5fN4dwFqmPm6iQUYJxnM3AU8hPDJdtFp_EAXNuwz5MX6l_2H9FOvmX7WJmwnEhNECQtCSBrZL3HUiE-QhfZXFQR9PX/s1600/07262012_SPXhourly.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh5LKNfhBhx17tdRi1Au-sv-PUr4y5ozSE8b4tqMUA-uLS88Vmq_t5fN4dwFqmPm6iQUYJxnM3AU8hPDJdtFp_EAXNuwz5MX6l_2H9FOvmX7WJmwnEhNECQtCSBrZL3HUiE-QhfZXFQR9PX/s320/07262012_SPXhourly.png" width="320" /></a></div>
The market still has issues here.
GL
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-16855248907503209702012-03-14T20:40:00.000-04:002012-03-14T20:40:35.686-04:0003.14.2012 -- Blow off top?Last time I posted, I went over how the market had to make a decision and the decision was made to move higher and we have now broken the rising wedge to the upside.<br />
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This, IMO, is a classic blow off top with a false breakout. This is what I wanted to see. Finally.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
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Upside -- 1400, 1450?<br />
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Downside -- 1391, 1373, 1354, 1335, 1286, 1260<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM67T9NtnExZACAi9GNHExwpf9xC4NjdIaE_iTFLY_SwVFf-UCLdt6IwYpIMRyN8JbMo_bWWtSKdqdzidmsrUA4MymIG3PLjFiDqqFE4-SOI2tWYkgpt3mKppkNUO9TsYDMPMl5jx_4V8F/s1600/03142012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgM67T9NtnExZACAi9GNHExwpf9xC4NjdIaE_iTFLY_SwVFf-UCLdt6IwYpIMRyN8JbMo_bWWtSKdqdzidmsrUA4MymIG3PLjFiDqqFE4-SOI2tWYkgpt3mKppkNUO9TsYDMPMl5jx_4V8F/s320/03142012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
So obviously the market feels really bullish right here, so lets go over some of the hidden things that are bearish.<br />
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1) First move is usually wrong. That is the underlying premise of our fake breakout higher and blow off top.<br />
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2) You can see in the chart that the RSI and MACD is declining while the S&P is putting in a powerful move north. That is a bearish divergence.<br />
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3) Yesterday the Transports tried to make a move north and got back over the 50DMA.. that reversed heavily today and is back underneath the trannies greatly underperformed today. This is still a DOW theory non-confirmation, which is bearish.<br />
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4) Sentiment is getting extremely bullish with things like CNBC having an "analyst" on this morning that when asked, essentially said he was buying pretty much anything and everything.<br />
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5) The financials were trying to stage a breakout yesterday. Today the XLF closed flat.. but the internals were quite mixed.. with some stocks like Citi and Goldman Suchs taking a big hit and others like BAC rallying hard. The XLF was very bi-polar today.<br />
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I know it doesn't seem like it, but something ugly is about to come out of the woodwork here soon. It could be that housing prices start tanking again with rates looking like they've put in a long term bottom. I still believe there are simply more houses than people to occupy them and it will remain a fundamental problem for the housing market. It could also be when the CDS trigger on Greek debt is pulled. It could be a large country like Spain or Italy that suddenly starts spinning the toilet bowl... but it will be something and soon.<br />
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GL<br />
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CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-32138484214272624932012-03-08T20:22:00.000-05:002012-03-08T20:22:12.141-05:0003.08.2012 -- Decision time..So we did what I expected in my last post, we broke, we are now backtesting. Believe it or not, it took the last 2 days of rallying to backtest the old trendline.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- here to 1374<br />
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Downside -- 1325, 1320, 1279, 1259<br />
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Again still at a point where 110 S&P points breaks all support.<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6DYESi0gKSKq9eKCAu8etCDjwl23_HlsUJudYcy6CY86jYfG8h-8fWkC0qqN8ypHUpzUAo4pYo6vYj_H_3D2w2XU9IoYobnerzEU4eJ-y8PTVYgnsscmy7y0Pxdc7d02O8CBsvueUTmFD/s1600/03082012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6DYESi0gKSKq9eKCAu8etCDjwl23_HlsUJudYcy6CY86jYfG8h-8fWkC0qqN8ypHUpzUAo4pYo6vYj_H_3D2w2XU9IoYobnerzEU4eJ-y8PTVYgnsscmy7y0Pxdc7d02O8CBsvueUTmFD/s320/03082012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
So pretty clearly you can see the break below the trendline and then now the perfect backtest.<br />
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We either break back into the wedge now and most likely put in another round of new highs, or we will fail right here.<br />
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If we fail right here, I suspect we will test the full bounderies of completely falling apart which would be the lowest moving average which currently sits at 1259 and rising. Below that, the market has a real problem on its hands.<br />
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its pretty much do or die for at least 50 points here, the break higher must happen tomorrow if its going to do it. Either that, or it would need to be a very narrow range day and explode up on Monday.<br />
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Otherwise, i expect us to re-fall hard here soon.<br />
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GL<br />
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CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-67582737224381943512012-03-05T20:50:00.000-05:002012-03-05T20:50:16.836-05:0003.05.2012 -- Potential roll over..As a side note, I am finding it harder and harder to make the time to do these with our 2 month old and our 2 year old right now, so they may not continue to be 4-5 days a week and might just be 2-3 days a week for a little while.<br />
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Moving to the markets.. i think we have a rollover in process. The outstanding question is what kind of top it is. The power of the eventual selling will help answer that question.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- 1366-1377<br />
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Downside -- todays low to 1360, 1319 (big drop to next support), 1275, 1258<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8L30wk7IPlSHdSUMHeR1d56qbg0xJENqbGe59A5q5GYQlixQMMC02PVfyz8Bcs3iKPy0waNwQfus69vj0dZHlg3tVxn6AHT5oobJD3gKWcA4hmDQ6hYRMguFNVbaxI2lWLeJMBZcxBteQ/s1600/03052012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh8L30wk7IPlSHdSUMHeR1d56qbg0xJENqbGe59A5q5GYQlixQMMC02PVfyz8Bcs3iKPy0waNwQfus69vj0dZHlg3tVxn6AHT5oobJD3gKWcA4hmDQ6hYRMguFNVbaxI2lWLeJMBZcxBteQ/s320/03052012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
So you can see there what happened today. We sold back into the wedge, which qualifies as a false break north, but would have liked to see a bigger blow off. After falling back into the wedge we fell to the bottom of it and then bounced and closed back in the bollingers.<br />
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I think within the next few days, we will again test the bottom and break lower out of it. Which will produce (after a possible back test) at least a 50 point S&P selloff just to start.<br />
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Could we have a fake out here and THEN complete a final surge that is the real blow off I was looking for? Yes.. its possible. But if we break convincingly below this wedge on close, that will be it for the rallying for awhile.<br />
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Lots of rotational selling going on right now. The Russel 2000 and Transports were very weak last Thursday/Friday while the market tried to hold its own and stocks like Apple still closed green. Today the Russel held up o.k. while Apple sold off hard and sent the NAS down hard.<br />
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Right now.. the Russel 2000, Transports and SOX are being a drag on the market. Leadership had really narrowed and we have parts of the market starting to show cracks in the armor.<br />
<br />
The trannies, Russel and SOX are especially important as a group. The Trannies failed to reach a new high and therefor have a non-confirmation of a DOW Theory buy signal. A non-confirmation is bearish. The SOX is important becuase its the semi-conductors and they often lead during bull markets as strength in manufacturing shows up and chips are needed in so many products. The Russel is important because it represents small business in America and generally is a better represention of the local economy and not so much how our economy is benefiting from the debasing of our currency and government deficit spending.<br />
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Without those three sectors also participating and hitting new 52 week highs with the S&P and DOW, it's really a bearish divergence in the market.<br />
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GL<br />
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CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-59617915300076761412012-02-29T22:19:00.000-05:002012-02-29T22:19:21.067-05:0002.29.2012 -- Reversal?Today was a miniture version of what i've been waiting for. We broke the upper trendline of the wedge intra-day and then proceeded to sell off and close red.<br />
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I would have liked to see a bigger blow off and a larger reversal, but today could qualify. <br />
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So far, I would say this appears to be another pullback (which we havent seen in awhile) and then yet another ramp sometime before a sell in May event. We will see how the trading goes if a sell off occurs here. A major top will involve major selling.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- Here to about 1375<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1361, 1354, 1310, 1300, 1269, 1258<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Mgak-tQ1tsG4pSANlIO6ToOkRzSb2D_zEgzPr2pif6cKp-zhw7VewwxyQCNFrrbOQbySNxYk3nsdTrMKaEMqkfOKmuwhPUI_xAzn-KME59vqIQBKqpQCqnBC-aCA1w1uThuIZLkpLBF8/s1600/02292012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Mgak-tQ1tsG4pSANlIO6ToOkRzSb2D_zEgzPr2pif6cKp-zhw7VewwxyQCNFrrbOQbySNxYk3nsdTrMKaEMqkfOKmuwhPUI_xAzn-KME59vqIQBKqpQCqnBC-aCA1w1uThuIZLkpLBF8/s320/02292012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Here are all the potential support areas. It's interesting how the trendlines end up so closely following the moving averages right now.<br />
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Even though the market didn't end down a ton, there was some heavy selling in areas of the market. The Russel 2000 again got hammered. The Russel is one of the areas that was still a big move away from new highs. <br />
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AAPL was up 1.3% but the NASDAQ was down 20. That tells you most things were hammered pretty good and AAPL kept it from looking real ugly. Probably done on purpose.<br />
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Early next week is a phi mate turn date. So this could be just another fake out, but those dates are +/- a few days, so today may have been it for at least a couple weeks.<br />
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Bernanke was probably not happy about the reaction to his speech today. By downplaying QE3, his intention i'm sure was to hammer oil prices back down. Knowing that in doing so, he might ding the market and knock treasury prices down.<br />
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Well.. he spoke.. market didn't like it, treasury prices sure enough headed lower, but oil held steady at 107. Oooohh.. i bet that burns his ass.. hahahha.. he is pissed tonight I think.<br />
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He did though manage to beat down the precious metals. But in the end, precious metals probably don't matter a whole heck of a lot to him, but oil does.<br />
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It really is sad.. I can't stand Ben Bernanke and everything he stands for, but at the same time, I know that the downfall of what he's created will mean terrible things for this country and my own children. In the end though, what he's doing has no other outcome, it is unavoidable, the outcome can only be delayed. I'd much prefer to get it over with now.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
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CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-11031824098368118252012-02-28T22:04:00.000-05:002012-02-28T22:04:36.491-05:0002.28.2012 -- on the edge..Don't have a ton of time today, so will just get right to it. The S&P is right on the edge of new highs. The NASDAQ is already there. <br />
<br />
BUT.. odd divergences. The DOW Transports were down today and are over 10% from new highs. While at the same time the DOW has hit new 52 week highs. Thats a big Dow Theory non-confirmation. Probably never seen the Trannies lag by 10% like that.<br />
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The Russel 2000 is also nearly 5% off of new 52 week/all time highs. The Russel today was down and was trading like an anchor to the market all day.<br />
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The NASDAQ had a nearly even Advance/Decline print today, despite the NAS being up 20 points. I believe this is all Apple all the time.<br />
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Leadership is very narrow.<br />
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They are attempting to rally the financials and light the spark to send us to new highs on the S&P,... BUT.. even if we do, we still have the Russel 2000 and probably more importantly the DOW transports a very good clip off new 52 week highs, which will remain a big divergence and DOW theory non-confirmation.<br />
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The market at or approaching 52 week highs and some indicies like the Russel 2000 near all time highs.. I cannot believe that the 10 year yield still sits at 1.92%. The amount of liquidity to pull off new market highs and all time record low yields is staggering. <br />
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God help us all if inflation sets in. There's no one in the FED that has a rats ass chance in hell of stopping it.<br />
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Anyways.. no time left.. <br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAgZSC50BNb5v2PZ3GPAWEYAZB-2filF5Zody4vYQ4N6oqYCzd-0TAYzJp0K6z73MtrRhMJlAwMvzOMHHf1gn9T-H46h2orMdgTTHOtni9EUd3ofpKExKJcjSBlqx0FQff5f8nTYvRFoEE/s1600/02282012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAgZSC50BNb5v2PZ3GPAWEYAZB-2filF5Zody4vYQ4N6oqYCzd-0TAYzJp0K6z73MtrRhMJlAwMvzOMHHf1gn9T-H46h2orMdgTTHOtni9EUd3ofpKExKJcjSBlqx0FQff5f8nTYvRFoEE/s320/02282012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div>C.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-83728695038925146772012-02-23T20:45:00.000-05:002012-02-23T20:45:05.133-05:0002.23.2012 -- More of the same..Nothing much changed today. We bounced off the mid-bollinger bands yet again and are continuing to ride up the top of the wedge.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- 1360-1370<br />
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Downside -- 1354, 1347, 1310, 1298, 1257<br />
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support continues to rise while the market is stalling and gyrating. We are now at the point that a 105 point sell off in the S&P would put the market below all support.<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjthYheTnxVcBPvBYlry_PP-qgZj3F5TsH-Ekoz6iEmAxZORDgQREjAsPG4PdkHAoI3LYUincP_zHg0eaqGArHyMXEp5fUf9G44fMG47aTN9G0aEzlUdZWy_G5SkWcNjpUcJOreSzn2BhFp/s1600/02232012S%2526Pdaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjthYheTnxVcBPvBYlry_PP-qgZj3F5TsH-Ekoz6iEmAxZORDgQREjAsPG4PdkHAoI3LYUincP_zHg0eaqGArHyMXEp5fUf9G44fMG47aTN9G0aEzlUdZWy_G5SkWcNjpUcJOreSzn2BhFp/s320/02232012S%2526Pdaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Not much to add today from our recent view. We continue to ride up the top of the wedge. We bounced off the mid-bollinger bands yet again which of course resulted in another trip to the top of the wedge.<br />
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We have a shot here to get a false break higher out of this wedge and then I would wager a collapse would be right behind it.<br />
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One change that I did not mark is that I think the EW count has changed for this particular rally that began just before christmas. It appears it is a wave structure in which we have a very large first wave, a much smaller 3rd wave and we are now in wave 5. I believe wave 5 is a micro copy of the entire structure. If so, there are 2 very small waves left.. a very small sell off and then one more very small lift. Under that count, that would complete the rally. <br />
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If my current count is right, I would guess sometime around next Wednesday could be a target for the end of this, but as usual EW counts can morph and can vary quite a bit from person to person attempting a count. Its not a primary indicator for me, but it does at the moment match all other technicals that this rally is nearing a major end.<br />
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GL<br />
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CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-66459091170702586872012-02-22T20:36:00.000-05:002012-02-22T20:36:18.106-05:0002.22.2012 -- Tired..Is the rally tired? yeah.. its real tired. Its like a bullet shot straight up in the air that's just about stalled. <br />
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You know whats more tired than the market? Me. I'm so sick and tired of the lies and bullshit that comes from the so called leaders of this country. <br />
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Here we are in election year and what are the headlines coming from our "leader" and potential "leaders"? Corporate tax reductions and closing some loopholes and lower the top bracket tax rate to 28%.<br />
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We are running trillion dollar deficits and these assholes are flapping their mouths about lowering taxes.<br />
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It's become nothing but a contest about who can promise the most bullshit not about who can fix problems and actually be a leader.<br />
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Apparently this country is so full of morons that they will elect a snake oil salesman over and over and over again.<br />
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To be honest, I don't like any of the choices. I think they all suck. I think the founding fathers are rolling over in their graves.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- 1360-1370<br />
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Downside -- 1352, 1342, 1300-1296, 1257<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRAidtvXfeCfF3mtBV7xZ8-bMkYWKiFto7lofbCVukqMo9EyErpvGFCm6OEc7GeTV7nHZKCaNDX11d9SPJGwPJEvi8mA-ZtGkYG80ocP6h-Wrmdv0_xCrXSWy4m5tLha1GKWw7KOfDpRlX/s1600/02222012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjRAidtvXfeCfF3mtBV7xZ8-bMkYWKiFto7lofbCVukqMo9EyErpvGFCm6OEc7GeTV7nHZKCaNDX11d9SPJGwPJEvi8mA-ZtGkYG80ocP6h-Wrmdv0_xCrXSWy4m5tLha1GKWw7KOfDpRlX/s320/02222012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Same wedge we've been following. The bollingers though are starting to flatten out here, which is always a pre-cursor to turning down. Doesnt have to be a trend change, but the bollingers will always flatten before a trend change. <br />
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The interesting part about it this time is that the bollingers are flattening while we are still riding above the top of them. That's a set up for a big sudden fall that goes right through them with first support being just above 1300.<br />
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The market is obviously tired here. The only question again is what kind of selloff we get when it comes.<br />
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If we get a mild selloff that eats up time but not much % off the S&P, then there's likely another ramp coming.<br />
<br />
If we get a very impulsive and powerful selloff, then questions will be asked about whether we've already seen the highs for the year.<br />
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GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-29733674959978129462012-02-21T20:56:00.000-05:002012-02-21T20:56:36.216-05:0002.21.2012 -- 4 dollar gas and counting..Oil broke recent highs.. nothing really stopping it now from surging back to 150 again. Except this time, 150 WTI will mean 6-7$ a gallon at the pump.<br />
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It's world economies heating up.. yeah thats it.. thats the ticket.<br />
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It definitely doesn't have anything to do with trillion dollar deficits, ZIRP and massively increasing FED balance sheets. Nope.. not that.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- here to 1370<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1351, 1345, 1300, 1294, 1257-1250<br />
<br />
A close below 1345 will be short term bearish and will mean a test of 1300 for sure.<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo3czu89-KQqQ_G96t8MvA4l9nH9uxUCcZn8UytYn1H9jLF4ACX4UXQrpA2x7Lut-ahJRfoJL6rlYlwypbNZYTimKYJO9Guu74iXG79ZnS5FSSxfdB4T7R3JtKwKO3G0gOhpkpzxqA3Hv3/s1600/02212012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgo3czu89-KQqQ_G96t8MvA4l9nH9uxUCcZn8UytYn1H9jLF4ACX4UXQrpA2x7Lut-ahJRfoJL6rlYlwypbNZYTimKYJO9Guu74iXG79ZnS5FSSxfdB4T7R3JtKwKO3G0gOhpkpzxqA3Hv3/s320/02212012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Here is our continuing rising bearish wedge.<br />
<br />
This thing will break one day. The question is whether we get significant new highs in all indicies before doing so.<br />
<br />
Right now, we have a significant new high in the NASDAQ and DOW. However, per DOW theory it is a non-confirmation with the Transports as they have not made a new significant high and actually deteriorated today. Also on the divergence side, the S&P, Russel 2000 and Wilshire have yet to make significant new highs.<br />
<br />
It is possible still that we still have one more trip to the bottom of this wedge and yet one more surge to attempt to reach the pinnacle of it. That would work time wise, as we will be entering that late March/April timeframe where sell in May becomes a factor. But the next move down could be it too.. its all going to be how the market trades the next down move.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-1143559465272271652012-02-16T23:04:00.000-05:002012-02-16T23:04:28.325-05:0002.16.2012 -- Still rolling over?We had a new high in the S&P by less than a point and a new high in the NASDAQ today, but I still believe this is all part of a topping process and probably a larger topping process.<br />
<br />
Tonights chart will show you exactly what happened today.<br />
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Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- here, 2370<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1345, 1300, 1290, 1257, 1250<br />
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SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNMCS6peGwc6si8nBiSabiSR81iRecjDvta64SZmAVyjwnhUVPZJiHb1po3pt2yQPAbZ4qVtka-3jbqpKsHa2ZCWPGAa_YjzsvZrScuvsgFFKUVnw6iMxhvG9EAEnamTkgvWiddrUSrkQ5/s1600/02162012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNMCS6peGwc6si8nBiSabiSR81iRecjDvta64SZmAVyjwnhUVPZJiHb1po3pt2yQPAbZ4qVtka-3jbqpKsHa2ZCWPGAa_YjzsvZrScuvsgFFKUVnw6iMxhvG9EAEnamTkgvWiddrUSrkQ5/s320/02162012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
heres our latest chart again. notice how we hit the bottom of the bollingers, which was last support until a fall to 1300, and then bounced right back up to the edge of the rising wedge. That is where the market sat pretty much the rest of the day.<br />
<br />
so we have a new high in the SPX and in the NAS, but in the end, we still have a DOW theory non-confirmation with the trannies not making new highs yet and we are still within our rising wedge and have not broken out of it.<br />
<br />
i suspect we'll ride the top of the wedge or maybe have a false breakout of it here for OPEX. <br />
<br />
we may not though.. in the past it has not been unusual for the market to choose a day like OPEX to fall apart at major tops. I just don't think we are quite there yet. We need more selling to creep in and volitility to rise and then AFTER that happens.. probably another run to make people think we are going to rally again after consolidating and that is the point where it can all fall apart.<br />
<br />
as long as the S&P, IWM and Trannies arent making new highs.. we have divergences in the market including a DOW theory non-confirmation that are screaming things are not well.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-16167813167208012752012-02-15T18:58:00.000-05:002012-02-15T18:58:40.110-05:0002.15.2012 -- What kind of top is this?We are putting in a little top here. The question is how large this top becomes.<br />
<br />
Is this just a little top of the rally since 12/02? in which case the bottom of the rising wedge will likely be the low target or will this become a larger and larger top as more and more support breaks?<br />
<br />
Don't guess, just let it tell you. First stop is the bottom of the wedge in todays chart. That rests slightly above 1300 at the moment but rises daily. Then all 3 major moving averages are sitting within 50 points of the bottom of the wedge.<br />
<br />
The market is set up in a way right now that a fast 100 point sell off would slam the market below all support. But, lets see support lost first. <br />
<br />
This is now a good spot to be short with the recent highs as stop loss and watch the support levels. <br />
<br />
---------------------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- 1353, 1370<br />
<br />
Downside -- Here, 1337, 1300, 1288, 1257, 1249<br />
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---------------------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCaGqRubudMe0zogXXElrKLpJ8Ap4bDXsbEF9XswBckTea1Q2IZVKWiuAuHA34I2he8SvrB-X0pdbipakLEkQSEI-NMDymPOdMHpibuUQgydBvBcr9L1dDAuxrmK5unw1BRHA6dRLovFtt/s1600/02152012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCaGqRubudMe0zogXXElrKLpJ8Ap4bDXsbEF9XswBckTea1Q2IZVKWiuAuHA34I2he8SvrB-X0pdbipakLEkQSEI-NMDymPOdMHpibuUQgydBvBcr9L1dDAuxrmK5unw1BRHA6dRLovFtt/s320/02152012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Theres the wedge and our little rollover is sitting on very first support at the mid-bollingers and previous resistance at the shoulders of last years big H&S pattern.<br />
<br />
If the move since last October is an ABC move, then we could be done. If its a 5 wave move, we are probably starting wave 4 down to the bottom of the wedge and then one more rally north to complete the count.<br />
<br />
There's really no way to know which it is other than watching the support and how the market trades. If we are indeed done with this entire move, we will spend some time putting in a larger top and then the selling will hit super fast and furious.<br />
<br />
The market has created a large amount of optimism and hype here, so if it is going to be a major top, it's going to take some time to build a larger top. <br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-53129144200646218202012-02-09T20:10:00.002-05:002012-02-09T20:26:37.155-05:0002.09.2012 -- still bleeding higher..In tonights chart, I threw in what I think is now a completed EW count.<br />
<br />
There are other options, but this looks like a clear complete count. To be proven wrong, 1370 needs to get taken out.<br />
<br />
I dont normally use EW as a major indicator, but I use it when it is supported by all other technical indicators.<br />
<br />
In this case, it is supported by the daily Stochs, MACD, trendlines, timing, and sentiment.<br />
<br />
----------------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- here to 1370<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1348, 1332, 1317, 1290, 1279, 1257, 1242<br />
<br />
----------------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZe9DloKXQu3lo5-qi6Suzb7gtj260Z9YpGxuiquND28liLAyglfu35ZvdJwF1S1_vGYwpYHwV4ZLSKGwgutNvShZC6fyjiKw0f9woBS4kIfybUc9kGBnmIhqqGhGx5Wx7_3-Mdemw7F1O/s1600/02092012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZe9DloKXQu3lo5-qi6Suzb7gtj260Z9YpGxuiquND28liLAyglfu35ZvdJwF1S1_vGYwpYHwV4ZLSKGwgutNvShZC6fyjiKw0f9woBS4kIfybUc9kGBnmIhqqGhGx5Wx7_3-Mdemw7F1O/s320/02092012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Here's the labeled count and where we stand. We are essentially just sliding up the upper trend line as it rises each day, so we are rising slightly continually to new recent highs but without breaking resistance.<br />
<br />
This is pretty self explanatory, so i'll move on.<br />
<br />
-------------------------------<br />
<br />
I think most of you who read this blog know that we are heading in a direction that will ultimately lead to bad things. We just don't know how long it will take to get there.<br />
<br />
We are essentially blowing a bubble in global central bank balance sheets.<br />
<br />
How far that can push markets is anyones guess.<br />
<br />
It certainly would qualify as by far the largest and most insane bubble to ever be created.<br />
<br />
In the end, trying to predict it seems silly though. <br />
<br />
Will anyone even ever know that you were the one to call the collapse as the world sinks into a global depression caused by a soverign debt and central bank balance sheet bubble?<br />
<br />
A global central bank and sovreign debt bubble is not a tech bubble or a housing bubble. It will be a global bubble and a devastating bubble. If you had the choice between global nuclear war or global exploding soverign debt bubble, I just might choose nuclear war. <br />
<br />
-----------------------------<br />
<br />
Some numbers..<br />
<br />
I think some folks lose sight quickly of how large these numbers have become. 7 or 8 years ago, throwing around numbers like 50 billion would have been enormous. The 400 billion deficit under Bush seemed tremendously huge.<br />
<br />
These numbers have gotten so enormous they are leaving comprehension for most.<br />
<br />
Lets talk for one minute about one number in particular. Lets assume for a minute that the IMF hands over 50 billion dollars to help bail out Greece yet again.<br />
<br />
Now lets assume that the 50 billion is funded mostly through US tax payers.<br />
<br />
Keep in mind too, 50 billion is less than 1/20th! of last years fiscal deficit.<br />
<br />
50 Billion is equal to approx. 160$ for every man, woman and child in the United states of America.<br />
<br />
If you have a family of 4, giving Greece 50 billion is like taking 640$ out of YOUR wallet and handing it to Greece. You may not feel it now, but you will in the future when this money must eventually be paid back.<br />
<br />
Now compound that into our fiscal year deficit. <br />
<br />
The US Treasury borrowed, in excess of tax revenue, the equivilant of over 3500$ for every man, woman and child in the US last year.<br />
<br />
Or over 20x the 160$.<br />
<br />
So a family of 4 is on the hook for 14000$ in accumulated national debt for last year.<br />
<br />
We've done this for 3 years in a row now.<br />
<br />
In 3 years, we are on the hook for 42K dollars per family of 4 in just 3 years.<br />
<br />
This is just borrowed debt in excess of tax revenue.<br />
<br />
Obviously Bernanke keeps mentioned how fiscal policy must be addressed, yet at the same time, he continues to allow them to spend uncontrollably by keeping borrowing rates at zero.<br />
<br />
But think of it like a mortgage.. even if your mortgage rate was zero, you still owe money every month on the balance.<br />
<br />
Then lets say you have a 300k mortgage at zero percent interest. You pay 1100$ a month, it comes straight off the principal. BUT.. at the same time that year, you take out a home equity loan for 10x the amount of principal you paid off that year. So you paid off almost 15k, but took out another loan for 150k. Now you owe 450k next year. Rinse repeat. This is what the government is doing. This is what governments around the world are doing.<br />
<br />
This is unsustainable.<br />
<br />
We will either see treasury rates blow up on us or government spending must be drastically reduced.<br />
<br />
Either way, the economy will be harmed badly. <br />
<br />
This is the essence of this bubble. The worst we have ever seen.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-29235376249062847072012-02-08T20:44:00.000-05:002012-02-08T20:44:28.725-05:0002.08.2012 -- 21 pointsWe are 21 points from new multi-year highs on the S&P. If the bears longer term EW count is ultimately correct, the rollover must occur soon. It wouldn't destroy the bear thesis if we take out 1370, but we would have to back way up in the EW count and targets well into the upper 1400's would become possible.<br />
<br />
----------------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- Here, 1370<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1344, 1329, 1314, 1275, 1257, 1241<br />
<br />
----------------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily;<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpWtbyyhDr4kdOOO0Ez4qsjFmfZj3JOAiXNYpwNSzKrCTINi9nW6skh-MhNbmG3kyIGRJJZyaWblbouX5MBHWASQsBh3PRSqw8rN1IFvITh8oyP0AgMNUh_P1_SUIIRV8ULpQ3Pmzm8BLe/s1600/02082012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpWtbyyhDr4kdOOO0Ez4qsjFmfZj3JOAiXNYpwNSzKrCTINi9nW6skh-MhNbmG3kyIGRJJZyaWblbouX5MBHWASQsBh3PRSqw8rN1IFvITh8oyP0AgMNUh_P1_SUIIRV8ULpQ3Pmzm8BLe/s320/02082012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Again, not much change. We are doing what I said was necessary to drag this out. Which is close within a small range each day. +/- 3-4 points at most. How long can the market keep that up? I don't know, but I would guess not much longer.<br />
<br />
The MACD is up to 19.73. Moved a little higher. 24 is that magic number we have never crossed on the daily. And the previous times we have gotten that high were all major reversals.<br />
<br />
We just have to wait and see what happens. If 1370 gets taken out on a close and stays there for a couple days or more, there will be some big changes to a lot of EW counts floating around out there. It wouldn't kill the bear case long term, but could provide the open door to move prices another 100 points higher.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-58403279085817943272012-02-07T18:17:00.000-05:002012-02-07T18:17:00.151-05:0002.07.2012 -- Tick tock..Not much change from yesterday, except I might expect us to pop up about 6 points from here just to touch the trendline and then reverse, but we don't have to.<br />
<br />
-----------------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- right here, 1350<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1340, 1327, 1314, 1283, 1272, 1257, 1239<br />
<br />
still very lopsided<br />
<br />
----------------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily;<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9US0uV0SYd5uWhN1lfPhU8RS3fKjWNj1_6Nx243xeIdrlFhbSqlHhRASXGRhLuYOfXBrDn46yiIya7RZfd8lSWkk2ScVF5h-WbPQGGoECKVwFss2gG04CUic8U70jxgxt-54cve_0-Ag2/s1600/02072012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh9US0uV0SYd5uWhN1lfPhU8RS3fKjWNj1_6Nx243xeIdrlFhbSqlHhRASXGRhLuYOfXBrDn46yiIya7RZfd8lSWkk2ScVF5h-WbPQGGoECKVwFss2gG04CUic8U70jxgxt-54cve_0-Ag2/s320/02072012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Not really any changes. We started to sell off, touched the top of the bollingers and then bounced right back up into that small soft range we can stay in until something breaks.<br />
<br />
The MACD is up to 19.26.. 24 is the magic max of the last decade. So there is room, but we've only made it to 24 3 times in the last decade.<br />
<br />
The Stochs are also back up to max overbought.<br />
<br />
Volume has been extremely low lately, as was noted by Zerohedge, the volume yesterday was the lowest relative volume of the last decade not including holidays.<br />
<br />
tick tock..<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-51542799566167127302012-02-06T20:22:00.000-05:002012-02-06T20:22:03.509-05:0002.06.2012 -- Dump or break out?We are sitting at a lot of resistance here and there's really only 2 choices for the market. We either dump or get a big breakout (that I think will ultimately be a false one).. and that will happen very soon. Like tomorrow. There's just no time left.<br />
<br />
I supposed we could go nowhere all week.. stay in a 3-4 point S&P range the entire week.. that's what would have to happen to last to the end of the week, but I just don't see that happening.<br />
<br />
-----------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- Right here, a few points higher around 1350<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1327, 1320, 1310, 1288, 1268, 1257, 1238<br />
<br />
support spread back out so that its very lopsided,.. a sign of a possible imminent reversal<br />
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-----------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily;<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxcfDR1KgHVl20jfuUJemv4u54L0b8KDF210Qnzv1TJbbwgUEPv4GU4S2Ni2cKMDFdHa7EuH97EbwusIiTehiq0OLu8TIzubGJxs6lvlGCW4pZv42gBUQJ3HKTTbKATC_3s9yuJ-c-C1Wl/s1600/02062012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="252" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxcfDR1KgHVl20jfuUJemv4u54L0b8KDF210Qnzv1TJbbwgUEPv4GU4S2Ni2cKMDFdHa7EuH97EbwusIiTehiq0OLu8TIzubGJxs6lvlGCW4pZv42gBUQJ3HKTTbKATC_3s9yuJ-c-C1Wl/s320/02062012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
You can see how we are butting right up at resistance here. We've tested it twice now since Friday. There just isn't time left here.<br />
<br />
Not much else to say here.. something is happening soon.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-82616955567909766792012-02-02T20:21:00.000-05:002012-02-02T20:21:19.564-05:0002.02.2012 -- still waitingAgain nothing changed from yesterday. The Russel and Nasdaq finally broke their short term parabolic moves, which IMO had been supporting the market the last couple days. The NAS has been up big while the S&P and DOW are just kinda watching and getting pulled along behind.<br />
<br />
------------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- Right here, 1340-1345<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1310, 1287, 1257, 1234<br />
<br />
------------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily (12 month)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-EZirml4wyBbqbu2YPYJ1mVyj7AxJzBua4Y5vjoAAMufXxflIs6p8mV-lVTjlM4JSIQCuLdO9KQesbBB0mqyR630CxmIOKKwLXGr42jkw0WzJjBD9S4dINSWjKnEOKNzWmtA3ZilSsWfl/s1600/02022012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-EZirml4wyBbqbu2YPYJ1mVyj7AxJzBua4Y5vjoAAMufXxflIs6p8mV-lVTjlM4JSIQCuLdO9KQesbBB0mqyR630CxmIOKKwLXGr42jkw0WzJjBD9S4dINSWjKnEOKNzWmtA3ZilSsWfl/s320/02022012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
Closed under the trendline yet again. One of these days we are either going to bust higher and have a blow off top, or we are going to reject this key level (which I expect) and we'll see what kind of sell off we get from it.<br />
<br />
Running back up to near the top has not done much to the Stochs or MACD. The stochs have a very small roll back up, but they are below that overbought level that could keep it running, they look ready to just roll back over again.<br />
<br />
Something will happen soon, I think we will all at least welcome a resolution to this move. <br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-60184633931425128752012-02-01T18:17:00.000-05:002012-02-01T18:17:26.132-05:0002.01.2012 -- Today did not change anything..Today felt bullish and likely had some bears on the edge of their seat as to when or if a pullback at least may ever come.<br />
<br />
But, when you look at it technically, no key levels were broke on close and nothing really changed from what I said yesterday.<br />
<br />
--------------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- 1325, 1340-1345<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1310, 1282, 1257, 1232<br />
<br />
--------------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily (12 month)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaFNuKSb6viYSUq5RWSRgRczMDTjCQM4UjoUStNIKjlfYiWF4U5-_2u3MU2fE7LJNlwt3yV-ODTwKMQ3tT6zFyhgb8IQABV6AgI2nJPcFoeqHmDdTTQ65FX3dodZnIVdHj2wg1EKTQikvl/s1600/02012012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhaFNuKSb6viYSUq5RWSRgRczMDTjCQM4UjoUStNIKjlfYiWF4U5-_2u3MU2fE7LJNlwt3yV-ODTwKMQ3tT6zFyhgb8IQABV6AgI2nJPcFoeqHmDdTTQ65FX3dodZnIVdHj2wg1EKTQikvl/s320/02012012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
As you can see here, nothing really changed today. While having a small breakout intra-day, the market closed inside the bollinger bands and below resistance.<br />
<br />
The Stochs and MACD did not budge, they are both still indicating a rollover is imminent.<br />
<br />
Not much else to say here besides wait for it. I still believe a big down day is in the works here in the next few days.. maybe tomorrow, but more likley by Monday/Tuesday.<br />
<br />
GL<br />
<br />
CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6145388192880860596.post-58268004306743447672012-01-31T21:48:00.001-05:002012-01-31T21:48:44.374-05:0001.31.2012 -- About to see where we stand...We are still fighting inside the bollinger bands, but they are very narrow. The stochs have continued to slide and usually the market plays some catch up when that happens.<br />
<br />
---------------------<br />
<br />
Key Levels<br />
<br />
Upside -- 1315-1325<br />
<br />
Downside -- 1300, 1257-1270, 1231<br />
<br />
---------------------<br />
<br />
SPX Daily (12 Month)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirVR8cCCQ298gXYcPg1pigBCumVs925npb_WPIp19_S7kOpRJ2RZo50nnAobzBswtIqZkT-fb_qsSKVSh8ikKKj52ymIh06-MXm080fX6iU5xcCr4lhHZhAOig09NmscW1FQffm_xwTUf9/s1600/01312012S%2526PDaily.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left:1em; margin-right:1em"><img border="0" height="250" width="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEirVR8cCCQ298gXYcPg1pigBCumVs925npb_WPIp19_S7kOpRJ2RZo50nnAobzBswtIqZkT-fb_qsSKVSh8ikKKj52ymIh06-MXm080fX6iU5xcCr4lhHZhAOig09NmscW1FQffm_xwTUf9/s320/01312012S%2526PDaily.png" /></a></div><br />
We are bouncing around inside those thin bollinger bands. This is just a rollover process of wearing down support. Certainly feels like bears will get burned by the numbers you see everyday, but I don't think that's the case.<br />
<br />
The stochs have continued to decline and look to be ready to take a quick dive. The market usually plays some catch up, so I expect some sort of fairly hefty decline here soon within a few days.<br />
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The MACD is still way up in very overbought land. The sell off, once started, will not be over utnil the MACD is at least close to zero from its current level of near 17.<br />
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We should finally be able to come to conclusion as to what we are dealing with and where we stand soon as the power of this next decline will tell us a lot about this market.<br />
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A lot of money piling into treasuries lately. Have you watched the 10 year yield?<br />
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I know that Bernanke has said what he said and that is a contributing factor, but think about it.. if this was such an economy on the verge of really entering a strong part of a recovery, would people be dumping tons of cash into 10 year treasuries that yield 1.84% over 10 years.<br />
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no... 1.84% over 10 years means I just want my money back.<br />
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A strengthening recovery and stock market surging to 1450 by year end does just not jive with the amount of money piling into treasuries at these rates.<br />
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We should know a lot more soon.<br />
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GL<br />
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CJC.J.http://www.blogger.com/profile/07654482251062470853noreply@blogger.com0