01.24.2012 -- Apple should top us out..

We are within 30 S&P points of at least a short term top here. The Apple earnings should be enough to push the market over the next few days and top out the MACD and pop us up to or over the trendline.

If you want this rally to be completely over, you need to root for a pretty good pop up over the trendline for a false break up to 1350 give or take 5 points and then roll over hard.

If we just touch the trendline and sell off, there may be another move north left in it.

--------------------------

Key Levels

Upside -- 1320-1330

Downside -- 1314, 1303, 1292, 1257, 1251, 1225

This is one of the longest time periods this has remained so lopsided since I have tracked these levels

---------------------------

SPX Daily (12 month)

We all know whats likely to happen as a result of the Apple earnings. This should be enough fuel to finally kick us up to our levels that should provide real resistance and start a sell off.

MACD didnt move today, still at 19.. but it will tomorrow. 24 is the magic number.

Stochs still levitating up at super overbought levels.

I think we should have a top and reversal in place by Friday or maybe Monday. What kind of top it is will be key here? If we just touch the trendline and roll over but then proceed to sell off somewhat hard but still in one of those down 150 on the DOW.. followed by a up 75 and then down another 100 and then up 40.. blah blah. One of those types of tops means theres yet another run north left.

If however, we pop up to 1350 or near and we get some kind of big intra-day reversal from big green to big red or a big green day followed by a gap down the next day that engulfs several previous days of green trading. Then proceed to selloff continually with big down days in a row. That will mean we have seen the top of this entire move.

We shall see.. won't be long now.

GL

CJ

01.23.2012 -- MACD approaching decade highs..

There's not much room left for this rally. The MACD on the daily is at 19. 24 is the decade high and we touched 24 back in October just before that very sharp sell off started.

-----------------------------

Key Levels

Upside -- 1320-1330

Downside -- 1310, 1299, 1287, 1257, 1249, 1224

----------------------------

SPX Daily (12 month)

Not a whole lot to say here, we are in the same position we have been.

MACD approaching that key 24 level, Stochs are very overbought and hanging up there.

Its still an open question of whether we will sell off some and then have yet one more surge to end this rally. There's really no way to tell yet. If we are going to end it now, I'd like to see some kind of blow off and mega reversal here. Either that or a bad earnings report or something from a key cog like Apple tomorrow that sends everything reeling in a big gap down open.

Either way, this rally doesn't make it past mid-March and could be over now with the 1321 top.

GL

CJ

01.19.2012 -- Feels so warm and bullish

Feels so bullish and warm and like we could be at new all time market highs by the end of the year doesn't it?

-------------------------

Key Levels

Upside -- 1320-1330

Downside -- 1303, 1292, 1281, 1257, 1247, 1221

very lopsided right now

-------------------------

SPX Daily (12 Month)

I've outlined here where I think we are going. Yesterday I was thinking that we might be possibly done soon and are going to pop up over 1330 and then fail and it would be all over.

Today, I'm feeling more that we are going to reverse here soon with the false break and sell off to the bottom of the triangle and then have one more surge and then the false break higher. That will drag out this process another month or 2.

It could go either way. If we reverse soon here (tommorrow or Monday), without breaking over that trendline, I believe theres another move north left. If we go ahead here and break that trendline and shoot up to 1330-1360, then this might be the final push north.

Sentiment is all set up for a big fall.. its hard right now to see what would break this market. You can't imgaine now with all the bailouts and games and interventions how they will allow this market to fall, especially in an election year. Its manipulated... it's controlled... "they" won't let it.

All thoughts that have gone through your head right? Make you doubt being short this market?

That is the psychology of a bear market. This is a bear market rally.. welcome. Burn the bears and burn the bulls.

GL

CJ

01.18.2012 -- Getting closer still..

Today we broke to the upper range of that first resistance in that 1290-1305 area.

Just above us is a long standing trendline at 1325ish. Hard to pinpoint because it is so old, so I would put it in the 1320-1330 range. A fake breakout over 1330 would not be surprising.

------------------------

Key Levels

Upside -- 1320-1330

Downdside -- 1288, 1279, 1257, 1246, 1220

------------------------

SPX Daily (5 year)

This is where our big trendline is coming from. It is hanging around somewhere in the 1320-1330 range. It's such a long time frame that it's a little loose and thats why the 10 point range. It also would not shock me if we had a false breakout over it just before the market fails and heads south very quickly breaking the bottom of this very large triangle.

I believe we are within 25 points of topping. We could maybe false break as high as 1350, but I dont think that's going to happen, I just don't think there's enough power left in this rally to get that high.

The MACD is up to almost 17. 24 is a decade high on the MACD, there simply isn't much room left. The stochs are rolling in overbought up around 90.

Rather than feeling like a powerful rally, this just feels like a market that is refusing to roll over. Essentially just wearing out the shorts and clearning the market and pulling in a few bulls before rolling over.

Short interest is at a low point here, so I think we are at the stage of pulling in some bulls before we turn.

There still could be a fall and one last surge and this could drag out another month and a half, but we are so close to that 1320-1330 range, unless we really fall hard tomorrow, I think we are going to continue up to that range and then put in that top soon.

GL

CJ

1.17.2011 -- Approaching the end game

We are still on track for a major top anytime between now and March. The chart tonight shows the upper trendline that I think will mark the extent of the top we make.

-----------------------

Key Levels

Upside - 1295, 1300, 1320

Downside - 1278, 1257, 1245, 1218, big drop after that.

-----------------------

SPX Daily;

You can see here that we are struggling to take out that resistance in the 1290-1300 range. Even if we take that out convincingly, there isn't much room before we run into that trendline around 1320.

The Stochs and MACD are both way on overbought, which basically indicates that this rally is running on fumes and borrowed time.

There is still a question of whether we need one more good sized decline and yet another rally to finish the pattern.

That is where the timing comes in that we are either topping very soon or we can stretch this out until March if there are 2 moves left in this.

We will know though. When the selling begins for cycle 3 down of Supercycle C down.. it will be obvious. The selling will come fast, furious and without mercy.

GL

CJ

01.11.2012 -- Major top within 1.5 months

A major top is approaching and can occur anytime between now and the beginning of March.

I believe we have one more pullback in this current rally and then one last surge, but that may or may not be the case.

The first week of March is a major Bradley turn date. That is the main reason I suspect there is one more big pullback and one last surge remaining in this rally.

-----------------------------

Key Levels

Upside -- 1311

Downside -- 1274, 1258, 1241, 1234, 1214

-----------------------------

SPX Daily;

Our old wedge is broken to the upside, but without much power and follow through. So I had to back out to a 10 month chart from a 6 month and we find the last downtrend line here that is currently sitting about 1311.

I think a false break of that trendline north sometime in the next 1.5 months, followed by a fast and furious reversal. (Preferably intra-day reversal) It could happen soon or we could go through one more pullback here followed by the last surge.

This will be a major top.

There's not much else to say right now, other than I expect us to touch and most likely exceed that downtrend line in a fake breakout before we truly reverse and begin the big wave 3 down that will finally end the global government ponzi debt bubble.

GL

CJ

01.04.2012 -- Happy New Year

Hi again folks. I will be doing some short updates from now until the end of next week and then be back to my normal posting.

Thanks for all the kind notes, the baby is doing great and the family is adjusting well. :)

------------------------

Key Levels

Upside -- 1284, 1345

Downside -- 1270, 1258, 1249, 1238, 1228, 1208

extremely lopsided to the downside.. a turn is coming soon

-----------------------

SPX Daily;

What we have here is obviously a big rising wedge. The other larger wedge was broke north but there was no real follow through or power associated with it as you can see.

I tend to think this is a fake break north from the larger wedge and we are about to either fake break the smaller one too and then fail or fail here very soon.

The stochs and MACD are both in overbought territory but do have some room for a continued push north, but not a ton of room, just a little.

We printed a DOJI hammer today.

What to watch for now is a big intra-day reversal. A big up day that reverses and closes heavily negative. That is a classic reversal signal that we have not seen in a long time.

GL

CJ