Dear Followers,
I am on post vacation for the next 2 weeks. I will be returning to the grind after labor day weekend.
I hope you can all live without me.
I may pop in with a few posts here and there if something of big importance happens.
GL
CJ
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
08.18.2011 -- Hmmm.....
Market is playing games with our heads...
Key Levels
Upside -- 1169, 1199
Downside -- 1120, 1102
---------------------------
This chart has no markings, it is only for visual reference;
SPX Daily;
You can see the bollingers did a little dip.. that little dip during the day was enough to move it from 1143 to 1140.
1140 was the max extent that I felt we could go if this was in fact a B wave of a ABC correction.
I like the price action.. I DON'T like the time it took. I expected to get this much movement down by sometime mid next week.
There's a lot of things that try to convince me that this isn't a B wave and that the "crash" wave has more to go;
1) Someone on the forum mentioned a lot of the growth stocks/momo's were hitting new lows.
2) Today was a hefty selloff. Not typical of a B wave. Would be more typical of this initial big wave down not being done yet.
3) Sentiment reversed rather dramatically there in just a week.
4) It would be hard to go short heavy right here.
O.k... but I will make some counterpoints;
1) The growth stocks/momos are putting in a new low with the market still quite a distance off new lows. That actually gives the market a chance to rally.
2) This wouldn't be typical of a B wave in a bear market, but I think in bear market, you really could get anything and have to think of it that way.
3) I don't think sentiment got heavy enough to the bull side to re-start a plunge. I want to see everyone feeling like the worst is over.
4) This one still bothers me... I have no arguments against that point.
-------------------------------
After careful contemplation and looking bad at the multiple bear and bull markets i've witnessed. I am sticking with my call from yesterday. We technically held the bottom of the bollingers on the daily because they shifted down on such a big down day. I think the market is tricking you with recent history into thinking we are going right back to plunging, when in fact we are going to potentially rip higher to 1250 to complete this correction.
This is a very touchy situation here though. A break of 1102 and obviously we are tanking some more. A close below 1121 would really make me reconsider.
Tough market here that is playing mind games. I would suggest you tread lightly. I will only go heavy here with a short at 1260 or higher and a long in the low 1000's.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside -- 1169, 1199
Downside -- 1120, 1102
---------------------------
This chart has no markings, it is only for visual reference;
SPX Daily;
You can see the bollingers did a little dip.. that little dip during the day was enough to move it from 1143 to 1140.
1140 was the max extent that I felt we could go if this was in fact a B wave of a ABC correction.
I like the price action.. I DON'T like the time it took. I expected to get this much movement down by sometime mid next week.
There's a lot of things that try to convince me that this isn't a B wave and that the "crash" wave has more to go;
1) Someone on the forum mentioned a lot of the growth stocks/momo's were hitting new lows.
2) Today was a hefty selloff. Not typical of a B wave. Would be more typical of this initial big wave down not being done yet.
3) Sentiment reversed rather dramatically there in just a week.
4) It would be hard to go short heavy right here.
O.k... but I will make some counterpoints;
1) The growth stocks/momos are putting in a new low with the market still quite a distance off new lows. That actually gives the market a chance to rally.
2) This wouldn't be typical of a B wave in a bear market, but I think in bear market, you really could get anything and have to think of it that way.
3) I don't think sentiment got heavy enough to the bull side to re-start a plunge. I want to see everyone feeling like the worst is over.
4) This one still bothers me... I have no arguments against that point.
-------------------------------
After careful contemplation and looking bad at the multiple bear and bull markets i've witnessed. I am sticking with my call from yesterday. We technically held the bottom of the bollingers on the daily because they shifted down on such a big down day. I think the market is tricking you with recent history into thinking we are going right back to plunging, when in fact we are going to potentially rip higher to 1250 to complete this correction.
This is a very touchy situation here though. A break of 1102 and obviously we are tanking some more. A close below 1121 would really make me reconsider.
Tough market here that is playing mind games. I would suggest you tread lightly. I will only go heavy here with a short at 1260 or higher and a long in the low 1000's.
GL
CJ
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
08.17.2011 -- What comes after ABC?
No not D... a market plunge.
Key Levels
Upside - 1205, 1260
Downside - 1175, 1145, 1121, 1102
---------------------------
Don't have a lot of time tonight, but luckily there's not a lot to say and most can be said with the following chart;
SPX Daily
That pretty much shows you what I think is going to happen here. How long it takes is an open question. I wonder if they can stretch it out until labor day and kick off the fall with a session of heavy volume selling.
After this correction is complete, we'll have another ugly decline. That ugly decline will be followed by a typical Christmas rally, which will be another counter trend rally like we are experiencing now, except even more powerful.
I believe sometime in the Jan-March 2012 timeframe a decline of historical awfulness will occur. One that will likely top some tables for worst ever declines both in terms of percentage and pure numbers.
For now... we will work through this correction for a bit.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside - 1205, 1260
Downside - 1175, 1145, 1121, 1102
---------------------------
Don't have a lot of time tonight, but luckily there's not a lot to say and most can be said with the following chart;
SPX Daily
That pretty much shows you what I think is going to happen here. How long it takes is an open question. I wonder if they can stretch it out until labor day and kick off the fall with a session of heavy volume selling.
After this correction is complete, we'll have another ugly decline. That ugly decline will be followed by a typical Christmas rally, which will be another counter trend rally like we are experiencing now, except even more powerful.
I believe sometime in the Jan-March 2012 timeframe a decline of historical awfulness will occur. One that will likely top some tables for worst ever declines both in terms of percentage and pure numbers.
For now... we will work through this correction for a bit.
GL
CJ
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
08.16.2011 -- Down then whipsaw up?
Today was pretty whipsawy. About a 25 point range. I think we may do some tanking here and then we'll be heading back up for a bit after that.
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1204, 1221, 1277
Downside -- 1180, 1143, 1121, 1102
------------------------
SPX Hourly;
Interesting close we had today. We are sitting right on that trendline and have been fighting with it the last 2 days.
The hourlies are heading back down off overbought and are on a sell. I think we'll sell off here now.
If you read yesterdays post, you might remember how I said if we immediately turned down off 1204 area, then we'll probably pullback some and then rocket up again to finish this counter trend rally up in the 1234-1250 range. I think that's the right call here.
Had we continued higher without a pullback, then I would have put the target slightly lower, maybe around 1221 and then back to plunging.
SPX Daily;
The daily is still on a buy and still working off very oversold levels. That is why i think we'll just be pulling back here a bit off very short term overbought and then heading higher again to finish this move off.
It's hard to tell how far this fall will go.. it's possible just another spike down to around 1165 will do it. I wouldn't really expect it to go lower than 1143. If it did go lower than that, then we'd have to start considering that 1204 was it for the counter rally.
-----------------------
Futures are down, but lately that hasn't meant much as things have changed dramatically by the open.
Bit of a gamble to make any moves here, I would keep them small.
Too big places to look for would be to short anything over 1265 with a stop over 1285 and shorting a close under 1121. Buying would be difficult for anything other than a scalp. I honestly would only buy a breakout over 1345 or potentially around 1012 in a collapse if the selling looked exhausted. (and only for a short term hold on the 1012 on another counter rally)
GL
CJ
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1204, 1221, 1277
Downside -- 1180, 1143, 1121, 1102
------------------------
SPX Hourly;
Interesting close we had today. We are sitting right on that trendline and have been fighting with it the last 2 days.
The hourlies are heading back down off overbought and are on a sell. I think we'll sell off here now.
If you read yesterdays post, you might remember how I said if we immediately turned down off 1204 area, then we'll probably pullback some and then rocket up again to finish this counter trend rally up in the 1234-1250 range. I think that's the right call here.
Had we continued higher without a pullback, then I would have put the target slightly lower, maybe around 1221 and then back to plunging.
SPX Daily;
The daily is still on a buy and still working off very oversold levels. That is why i think we'll just be pulling back here a bit off very short term overbought and then heading higher again to finish this move off.
It's hard to tell how far this fall will go.. it's possible just another spike down to around 1165 will do it. I wouldn't really expect it to go lower than 1143. If it did go lower than that, then we'd have to start considering that 1204 was it for the counter rally.
-----------------------
Futures are down, but lately that hasn't meant much as things have changed dramatically by the open.
Bit of a gamble to make any moves here, I would keep them small.
Too big places to look for would be to short anything over 1265 with a stop over 1285 and shorting a close under 1121. Buying would be difficult for anything other than a scalp. I honestly would only buy a breakout over 1345 or potentially around 1012 in a collapse if the selling looked exhausted. (and only for a short term hold on the 1012 on another counter rally)
GL
CJ
Monday, August 15, 2011
08.15.2011 -- Prepare for some whipsaws..
Howdy followers. Not a lot to go over today, but we are on track.
Key Levels
Upside -- 1232, 1275-1285
Downside -- 1188, 1143, 1102
-----------------------
SPX Daily
Not a lot in this chart. If you've been following me for awhile, you should be able to pick out the important things. We popped over the mid-bollingers today, which may mean we have even more short term pop to go and we are obviously correcting that crash of a move over the last few weeks.
I do believe though that we are close to finishing out the first leg of this correction. We will soon be whipsawed back to the downside.
There's 2 options here IMO;
1) We whipsaw back down here soon, maybe starting tomorrow. But its only the 2nd leg of the correction. The correction of the correction. Then we head higher once again to finish the correction somewhere around 1250.
2) We head straight to 1230-1250, then resume plunging straight to new lows from that point.
Elliot Wave would support both potential paths. Unfortunately, those are very different paths.
My challenge now is how/when to start scaling back in short in order not to miss the next big plunge without having to sit on loss too long waiting. Again, I think this is a job for shorting the leveraged bull ETFs.
I am tempted to make this move now and just wait for the next plunge because of how difficult it may be to time this whipsaw. Even if that means sitting on a loss for a bit.
---------------------
We got the death cross today. The 50 crossed under the 200 on the daily. It's now obvious although not super convincing yet. Would like to see it dip a little deeper below the 200 before declaring for certain that we are heading into at least a recession.
---------------------
Put yer neck braces on.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside -- 1232, 1275-1285
Downside -- 1188, 1143, 1102
-----------------------
SPX Daily
Not a lot in this chart. If you've been following me for awhile, you should be able to pick out the important things. We popped over the mid-bollingers today, which may mean we have even more short term pop to go and we are obviously correcting that crash of a move over the last few weeks.
I do believe though that we are close to finishing out the first leg of this correction. We will soon be whipsawed back to the downside.
There's 2 options here IMO;
1) We whipsaw back down here soon, maybe starting tomorrow. But its only the 2nd leg of the correction. The correction of the correction. Then we head higher once again to finish the correction somewhere around 1250.
2) We head straight to 1230-1250, then resume plunging straight to new lows from that point.
Elliot Wave would support both potential paths. Unfortunately, those are very different paths.
My challenge now is how/when to start scaling back in short in order not to miss the next big plunge without having to sit on loss too long waiting. Again, I think this is a job for shorting the leveraged bull ETFs.
I am tempted to make this move now and just wait for the next plunge because of how difficult it may be to time this whipsaw. Even if that means sitting on a loss for a bit.
---------------------
We got the death cross today. The 50 crossed under the 200 on the daily. It's now obvious although not super convincing yet. Would like to see it dip a little deeper below the 200 before declaring for certain that we are heading into at least a recession.
---------------------
Put yer neck braces on.
GL
CJ
Sunday, August 14, 2011
08.14.2011 -- How high
Key Levels
Upside -- 1188, 1233, 1281
Downside -- 1172, 1119, 1102
---------------------
We are overbought on the 30 min and hourlies, but everything other than that, (besides the monthly) we are oversold and on a buy still.
The futures are showing a pop for tomorrow's open. That pop may get sold on the open, but after that, we still have some buying to do. I still think something between 1235 and 1280 is going to be a good area to ditch a long before getting too greedy and scaling in short again. It's hard because of the volitility so the targets are moving rapidly, which is why the target area is so large. For example, the mid-bollingers on the daily moved from 1234 to 1196 in one day, since Thursday.
SPX Daily (without much actual analysis.. don't need it yet really)
You can see where we found some support there, erasing the entire move for the last year.
The 50dma looks to be crossing under the 200dma, but is not yet convincing. Unless we rally 100 points on the S&P tomorrow, we should get an obvious cross by Tuesday and it will be convincing by the end of next week. I think a death cross is unavoidable at this point. However, we may head all the way back up and test the 200dma and maybe even poke up above it a tad.
----------------------
I'm interested in whether we close this week as a green candle for the week. We put in a hammer candle last week, but it was a red hammer. You usually want a green hammer to be a bottom for a longer time period. This leads me to believe that the early part of this week may be very very green but then we may close out the week very very red. I think there's high potential of a mega whipsaw week here or potentially next week if this week closes out flat.
----------------------
Longer term, the charts still look horrible. As i've mentioned before, the monthlies just started rolling over. We may have a month here and there that close slightly green from day 1 to day 30..., but historically, the rollover in the monthlies usually results in a lot of very big red candles. Rallies will be sharp, but they will last weeks not months, and reverse quickly and hard.
----------------------
Make sure you have a home defense weapon or 2 for when the necessary cuts that must happen to welfare and medicade occur. The crime rate is going to be 10x higher in 5-10 years, depending on when this is forced upon the government.
---------------------
In the meantime, make some money off this rally and prepare to short it again.
GL
CJ
Upside -- 1188, 1233, 1281
Downside -- 1172, 1119, 1102
---------------------
We are overbought on the 30 min and hourlies, but everything other than that, (besides the monthly) we are oversold and on a buy still.
The futures are showing a pop for tomorrow's open. That pop may get sold on the open, but after that, we still have some buying to do. I still think something between 1235 and 1280 is going to be a good area to ditch a long before getting too greedy and scaling in short again. It's hard because of the volitility so the targets are moving rapidly, which is why the target area is so large. For example, the mid-bollingers on the daily moved from 1234 to 1196 in one day, since Thursday.
SPX Daily (without much actual analysis.. don't need it yet really)
You can see where we found some support there, erasing the entire move for the last year.
The 50dma looks to be crossing under the 200dma, but is not yet convincing. Unless we rally 100 points on the S&P tomorrow, we should get an obvious cross by Tuesday and it will be convincing by the end of next week. I think a death cross is unavoidable at this point. However, we may head all the way back up and test the 200dma and maybe even poke up above it a tad.
----------------------
I'm interested in whether we close this week as a green candle for the week. We put in a hammer candle last week, but it was a red hammer. You usually want a green hammer to be a bottom for a longer time period. This leads me to believe that the early part of this week may be very very green but then we may close out the week very very red. I think there's high potential of a mega whipsaw week here or potentially next week if this week closes out flat.
----------------------
Longer term, the charts still look horrible. As i've mentioned before, the monthlies just started rolling over. We may have a month here and there that close slightly green from day 1 to day 30..., but historically, the rollover in the monthlies usually results in a lot of very big red candles. Rallies will be sharp, but they will last weeks not months, and reverse quickly and hard.
----------------------
Make sure you have a home defense weapon or 2 for when the necessary cuts that must happen to welfare and medicade occur. The crime rate is going to be 10x higher in 5-10 years, depending on when this is forced upon the government.
---------------------
In the meantime, make some money off this rally and prepare to short it again.
GL
CJ
Thursday, August 11, 2011
08.11.2011 -- Major bounce or Minor bounce
Key Levels
Upside -- 1181, 1207, 1234
Downside -- 1153, 1136, 1115, 1102
---------------------
Yesterdays theory that it was significant that we held the lows is so far turning out to be a good move. The question now is how large this bounce becomes.
From an Elliot Wave theory standpoint, this could be a larger degree Wave 4 up or a small degree wave 4 up that is still part of a larger degree wave 3 down.
Essentially what that means is that we could reverse here and have another plunge lower, to new lows, before finishing this wave of selling and then have our significant bounce or we are going to have a significant bounce right now.
However, keep in mind, there is still a large degree wave 5 down left either way.
I don't generally bring up wave theory, but in this case it has something to tell us.. and that is this round of major selling is not over.. but we may have a significant bounce here before it finishes up for more than a week.
SPX Daily;
You can see here we've closed well back into the bollinger bands for the first time since the sell off started. Anyone who's followed me for awhile knows how much "stock" i put into that. It's significant and is strong evidence to me that we're going to have a pretty hefty bounce and not turn straight back down to new lows. I want to note though that we may pullback some of todays gains before moving on to higher prices.
1207-1234 is a likely area for this move, but we could go as high as 1280.
SPX hourly (10 week)
Here's all of our potential channel lines. I like 1234 as a target area for this bounce. It would also blend well with Elliot Wave as a wave 4 of this move from the top cannot exceed 1240 without violating rules. So that would test right up near that level, which would be fairly typical of market action.
The only thing that concerns me about this bounce continuing higher is if this wave 3 down we are in is not over and we are about to finish it. But I have scratched that idea because of us getting so far back into the bollingers, but I will be watching to make sure we stay in them. If we fall back out of them tomorrow, its game off for the bigger bounce.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, this is all part of a 5 wave structure that makes up WAVE 1.. the first wave of this very large Supercycle sized decline we are beginning. The WAVE 2 supercycle degree corrective may happen in the fall through Christmas and make us feel like the worst is over and the crisis is all done and over.
------------------------
Football starts tonight!! YES!!!!!
I'm a Redskins fan!!.. SHIT!!!!
GL
CJ
Upside -- 1181, 1207, 1234
Downside -- 1153, 1136, 1115, 1102
---------------------
Yesterdays theory that it was significant that we held the lows is so far turning out to be a good move. The question now is how large this bounce becomes.
From an Elliot Wave theory standpoint, this could be a larger degree Wave 4 up or a small degree wave 4 up that is still part of a larger degree wave 3 down.
Essentially what that means is that we could reverse here and have another plunge lower, to new lows, before finishing this wave of selling and then have our significant bounce or we are going to have a significant bounce right now.
However, keep in mind, there is still a large degree wave 5 down left either way.
I don't generally bring up wave theory, but in this case it has something to tell us.. and that is this round of major selling is not over.. but we may have a significant bounce here before it finishes up for more than a week.
SPX Daily;
You can see here we've closed well back into the bollinger bands for the first time since the sell off started. Anyone who's followed me for awhile knows how much "stock" i put into that. It's significant and is strong evidence to me that we're going to have a pretty hefty bounce and not turn straight back down to new lows. I want to note though that we may pullback some of todays gains before moving on to higher prices.
1207-1234 is a likely area for this move, but we could go as high as 1280.
SPX hourly (10 week)
Here's all of our potential channel lines. I like 1234 as a target area for this bounce. It would also blend well with Elliot Wave as a wave 4 of this move from the top cannot exceed 1240 without violating rules. So that would test right up near that level, which would be fairly typical of market action.
The only thing that concerns me about this bounce continuing higher is if this wave 3 down we are in is not over and we are about to finish it. But I have scratched that idea because of us getting so far back into the bollingers, but I will be watching to make sure we stay in them. If we fall back out of them tomorrow, its game off for the bigger bounce.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, this is all part of a 5 wave structure that makes up WAVE 1.. the first wave of this very large Supercycle sized decline we are beginning. The WAVE 2 supercycle degree corrective may happen in the fall through Christmas and make us feel like the worst is over and the crisis is all done and over.
------------------------
Football starts tonight!! YES!!!!!
I'm a Redskins fan!!.. SHIT!!!!
GL
CJ
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