11/07/2008 Morning Note (Jobs Report)

The futures are up this morning. Some of you may be asking... who would buy this terrible market ahead of a terrible jobs report? All news is awful.

well yeah.. but the market also is forward looking. So we've priced in some pretty terrible economic news for awhile at these levels. Probably have priced in an eventual -5% GDP print. We will need to expect a -10% GDP print for the plunge to S&P 550.

On to jobs... I think -200K or less and we'll rally. If we rally, the chances of locking in a higher low and a short term bottom rises.

November and December are historically kind to the market, even in bear market years.

Here's a chart for past November/December market performance, and why 8 of the last 13 bear markets bottom in October;