It looks like we have finished up the first wave of the final rally leg of the March 2009 rally. Next will be a corrective wave. We may pop up a bit tomorrow, but I expect there's a high likelyhood that the market closes down.
There is a tiny tiny tiny chance that this 5 wave structure is all there was for the last leg of the rally, but I doubt it. If that was the case, impulsive selling and distribution will become very apparent very soon.
Otherwise, I expect a pullback to the 1340 range for the 2nd wave correction and then to embark on wave 3 up.
Tonights chart is a 30 minute / 10 day chart of the S&P. I've labeled what I believe is the EW count for this rally and I more importantly I show the trendline for this rally that looks broken which is key to my guess that this part of the rally is over.
S&P chart;
Meanwhile tonight, somethings going on in silver. Probably just a result of the parabolic blow off it recently went on, but keep an eye on whether it starts to spread into other assets. It could be the start of a waterfall of sorts.
I will have more tomorrow night after I feel better. (I hope)
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