07.26.2011 -- Pullback continuing..

Key Levels;

Upside -- 1339, 1353, 1360-1370

Downside -- 1325, 1317, 1311, 1282

-------------------------------------------

SPX Daily;

We fell back into the bollinger bands today, which leaves us with a high probability of getting to at least 1325. 1317 though looks like the most logical place to stop, if it's going to.

Lots of support under us from here til 1311. Below 1311 though, the market would have a major problem on it's hands. If this is more than a pullback, we'll have a big red day here soon. The most damaging would be a big red candle that takes out all 4 levels of support straight down below 1311.

Note that the Stochs, MACD and RSI have plenty of falling room in the daily chart.

SPX hourly;

Again, we've broken a support level and fallen back into the upper half of this channel. The hourlies suggest we may take a trip to 1311. So somewhere between 1311 and 1317 looks like a strong target for a pullback. It's also a very important support level to hold for bulls.

Note that the hourly is approaching oversold in the MACD and Stochs. We may have a few more hours of selling and then a pause or rally for a bit. But I do not believe this pullback is over until we get more overbought burned off on the daily.

--------------------------------------

AMZN apparently had good earnings this afternoon. Strange to me though, they beat analyst estimates, but earnings actually fell as margins got crimped on higher costs.

So while they beat estimates... their P/E is actually going to go even higher, from 96 to over 100.

I'd watch carefully to see if this AH bump holds tomorrow in open trading. Increased costs, lower margins and lower profit is not good. The only thing that was good was that they beat lowered analyst estimates.

--------------------------------------------

US Dollar is getting closer and closer back to the all time low. It deserves a close eye.

Oil back up to 100$ a barrel and that's WTI, which is broken as an index. 105$ on WTI should put us back at record prices at the pump.

--------------------------------------------

Still no debt deal. Our idiot leaders are still idiots. This will not end well. They will pass a temp package and the US is going to lose it's AAA rating. I'm not entirely sure what that will do to the market.

GL

CJ