Tuesday, November 11, 2008

11/11/2008 Will 848 be the bottom...

No charts for today, not much has changed from my previous post with the 3 charts of UYG, GS and C.

GS did get a bounce today. We'll see if it holds, if it does that could be an good sign. C is still in bad shape though, need to see it start to carve out a bottom.

With 50 points to go to hit 848, taking out 7.01 on UYG and making new lows is possible. If that happens I would look for 848 to get taken out as well.

There are no changes to my core current positions.

One thing I will say is that the media is the very very negative along with terrible sentiment with just about every analyst on CNBC saying we have further down to go. Remember, these are the same people that were screaming buy about 400 S&P points ago. You know, people like Creamer who waited until we were within 100 points of a potential bottom to tell everyone to sell everything.

I think we have a washout day on the way... that is what will finally bottom this market. Big down day... 400+ points that reverses to positive. That is why it is important to be positioning yourself long before this day happens, because when it does it is almost impossible to catch the bottom and even if you do it will be a small position you were praying would work. Then the reversal moves up so fast you never find a good entry and end up missing a large part of the move as it will move very quickly from there.

Any big down day from here on out, I will be buying the market at -400 or more with the second half of my portfolio. If the reversal doesn't show, I will dump it and try again. That classic reversal day is coming.

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