Dear Followers,
I am on post vacation for the next 2 weeks. I will be returning to the grind after labor day weekend.
I hope you can all live without me.
I may pop in with a few posts here and there if something of big importance happens.
GL
CJ
Sunday, August 21, 2011
Thursday, August 18, 2011
08.18.2011 -- Hmmm.....
Market is playing games with our heads...
Key Levels
Upside -- 1169, 1199
Downside -- 1120, 1102
---------------------------
This chart has no markings, it is only for visual reference;
SPX Daily;
You can see the bollingers did a little dip.. that little dip during the day was enough to move it from 1143 to 1140.
1140 was the max extent that I felt we could go if this was in fact a B wave of a ABC correction.
I like the price action.. I DON'T like the time it took. I expected to get this much movement down by sometime mid next week.
There's a lot of things that try to convince me that this isn't a B wave and that the "crash" wave has more to go;
1) Someone on the forum mentioned a lot of the growth stocks/momo's were hitting new lows.
2) Today was a hefty selloff. Not typical of a B wave. Would be more typical of this initial big wave down not being done yet.
3) Sentiment reversed rather dramatically there in just a week.
4) It would be hard to go short heavy right here.
O.k... but I will make some counterpoints;
1) The growth stocks/momos are putting in a new low with the market still quite a distance off new lows. That actually gives the market a chance to rally.
2) This wouldn't be typical of a B wave in a bear market, but I think in bear market, you really could get anything and have to think of it that way.
3) I don't think sentiment got heavy enough to the bull side to re-start a plunge. I want to see everyone feeling like the worst is over.
4) This one still bothers me... I have no arguments against that point.
-------------------------------
After careful contemplation and looking bad at the multiple bear and bull markets i've witnessed. I am sticking with my call from yesterday. We technically held the bottom of the bollingers on the daily because they shifted down on such a big down day. I think the market is tricking you with recent history into thinking we are going right back to plunging, when in fact we are going to potentially rip higher to 1250 to complete this correction.
This is a very touchy situation here though. A break of 1102 and obviously we are tanking some more. A close below 1121 would really make me reconsider.
Tough market here that is playing mind games. I would suggest you tread lightly. I will only go heavy here with a short at 1260 or higher and a long in the low 1000's.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside -- 1169, 1199
Downside -- 1120, 1102
---------------------------
This chart has no markings, it is only for visual reference;
SPX Daily;
You can see the bollingers did a little dip.. that little dip during the day was enough to move it from 1143 to 1140.
1140 was the max extent that I felt we could go if this was in fact a B wave of a ABC correction.
I like the price action.. I DON'T like the time it took. I expected to get this much movement down by sometime mid next week.
There's a lot of things that try to convince me that this isn't a B wave and that the "crash" wave has more to go;
1) Someone on the forum mentioned a lot of the growth stocks/momo's were hitting new lows.
2) Today was a hefty selloff. Not typical of a B wave. Would be more typical of this initial big wave down not being done yet.
3) Sentiment reversed rather dramatically there in just a week.
4) It would be hard to go short heavy right here.
O.k... but I will make some counterpoints;
1) The growth stocks/momos are putting in a new low with the market still quite a distance off new lows. That actually gives the market a chance to rally.
2) This wouldn't be typical of a B wave in a bear market, but I think in bear market, you really could get anything and have to think of it that way.
3) I don't think sentiment got heavy enough to the bull side to re-start a plunge. I want to see everyone feeling like the worst is over.
4) This one still bothers me... I have no arguments against that point.
-------------------------------
After careful contemplation and looking bad at the multiple bear and bull markets i've witnessed. I am sticking with my call from yesterday. We technically held the bottom of the bollingers on the daily because they shifted down on such a big down day. I think the market is tricking you with recent history into thinking we are going right back to plunging, when in fact we are going to potentially rip higher to 1250 to complete this correction.
This is a very touchy situation here though. A break of 1102 and obviously we are tanking some more. A close below 1121 would really make me reconsider.
Tough market here that is playing mind games. I would suggest you tread lightly. I will only go heavy here with a short at 1260 or higher and a long in the low 1000's.
GL
CJ
Wednesday, August 17, 2011
08.17.2011 -- What comes after ABC?
No not D... a market plunge.
Key Levels
Upside - 1205, 1260
Downside - 1175, 1145, 1121, 1102
---------------------------
Don't have a lot of time tonight, but luckily there's not a lot to say and most can be said with the following chart;
SPX Daily
That pretty much shows you what I think is going to happen here. How long it takes is an open question. I wonder if they can stretch it out until labor day and kick off the fall with a session of heavy volume selling.
After this correction is complete, we'll have another ugly decline. That ugly decline will be followed by a typical Christmas rally, which will be another counter trend rally like we are experiencing now, except even more powerful.
I believe sometime in the Jan-March 2012 timeframe a decline of historical awfulness will occur. One that will likely top some tables for worst ever declines both in terms of percentage and pure numbers.
For now... we will work through this correction for a bit.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside - 1205, 1260
Downside - 1175, 1145, 1121, 1102
---------------------------
Don't have a lot of time tonight, but luckily there's not a lot to say and most can be said with the following chart;
SPX Daily
That pretty much shows you what I think is going to happen here. How long it takes is an open question. I wonder if they can stretch it out until labor day and kick off the fall with a session of heavy volume selling.
After this correction is complete, we'll have another ugly decline. That ugly decline will be followed by a typical Christmas rally, which will be another counter trend rally like we are experiencing now, except even more powerful.
I believe sometime in the Jan-March 2012 timeframe a decline of historical awfulness will occur. One that will likely top some tables for worst ever declines both in terms of percentage and pure numbers.
For now... we will work through this correction for a bit.
GL
CJ
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
08.16.2011 -- Down then whipsaw up?
Today was pretty whipsawy. About a 25 point range. I think we may do some tanking here and then we'll be heading back up for a bit after that.
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1204, 1221, 1277
Downside -- 1180, 1143, 1121, 1102
------------------------
SPX Hourly;
Interesting close we had today. We are sitting right on that trendline and have been fighting with it the last 2 days.
The hourlies are heading back down off overbought and are on a sell. I think we'll sell off here now.
If you read yesterdays post, you might remember how I said if we immediately turned down off 1204 area, then we'll probably pullback some and then rocket up again to finish this counter trend rally up in the 1234-1250 range. I think that's the right call here.
Had we continued higher without a pullback, then I would have put the target slightly lower, maybe around 1221 and then back to plunging.
SPX Daily;
The daily is still on a buy and still working off very oversold levels. That is why i think we'll just be pulling back here a bit off very short term overbought and then heading higher again to finish this move off.
It's hard to tell how far this fall will go.. it's possible just another spike down to around 1165 will do it. I wouldn't really expect it to go lower than 1143. If it did go lower than that, then we'd have to start considering that 1204 was it for the counter rally.
-----------------------
Futures are down, but lately that hasn't meant much as things have changed dramatically by the open.
Bit of a gamble to make any moves here, I would keep them small.
Too big places to look for would be to short anything over 1265 with a stop over 1285 and shorting a close under 1121. Buying would be difficult for anything other than a scalp. I honestly would only buy a breakout over 1345 or potentially around 1012 in a collapse if the selling looked exhausted. (and only for a short term hold on the 1012 on another counter rally)
GL
CJ
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1204, 1221, 1277
Downside -- 1180, 1143, 1121, 1102
------------------------
SPX Hourly;
Interesting close we had today. We are sitting right on that trendline and have been fighting with it the last 2 days.
The hourlies are heading back down off overbought and are on a sell. I think we'll sell off here now.
If you read yesterdays post, you might remember how I said if we immediately turned down off 1204 area, then we'll probably pullback some and then rocket up again to finish this counter trend rally up in the 1234-1250 range. I think that's the right call here.
Had we continued higher without a pullback, then I would have put the target slightly lower, maybe around 1221 and then back to plunging.
SPX Daily;
The daily is still on a buy and still working off very oversold levels. That is why i think we'll just be pulling back here a bit off very short term overbought and then heading higher again to finish this move off.
It's hard to tell how far this fall will go.. it's possible just another spike down to around 1165 will do it. I wouldn't really expect it to go lower than 1143. If it did go lower than that, then we'd have to start considering that 1204 was it for the counter rally.
-----------------------
Futures are down, but lately that hasn't meant much as things have changed dramatically by the open.
Bit of a gamble to make any moves here, I would keep them small.
Too big places to look for would be to short anything over 1265 with a stop over 1285 and shorting a close under 1121. Buying would be difficult for anything other than a scalp. I honestly would only buy a breakout over 1345 or potentially around 1012 in a collapse if the selling looked exhausted. (and only for a short term hold on the 1012 on another counter rally)
GL
CJ
Monday, August 15, 2011
08.15.2011 -- Prepare for some whipsaws..
Howdy followers. Not a lot to go over today, but we are on track.
Key Levels
Upside -- 1232, 1275-1285
Downside -- 1188, 1143, 1102
-----------------------
SPX Daily
Not a lot in this chart. If you've been following me for awhile, you should be able to pick out the important things. We popped over the mid-bollingers today, which may mean we have even more short term pop to go and we are obviously correcting that crash of a move over the last few weeks.
I do believe though that we are close to finishing out the first leg of this correction. We will soon be whipsawed back to the downside.
There's 2 options here IMO;
1) We whipsaw back down here soon, maybe starting tomorrow. But its only the 2nd leg of the correction. The correction of the correction. Then we head higher once again to finish the correction somewhere around 1250.
2) We head straight to 1230-1250, then resume plunging straight to new lows from that point.
Elliot Wave would support both potential paths. Unfortunately, those are very different paths.
My challenge now is how/when to start scaling back in short in order not to miss the next big plunge without having to sit on loss too long waiting. Again, I think this is a job for shorting the leveraged bull ETFs.
I am tempted to make this move now and just wait for the next plunge because of how difficult it may be to time this whipsaw. Even if that means sitting on a loss for a bit.
---------------------
We got the death cross today. The 50 crossed under the 200 on the daily. It's now obvious although not super convincing yet. Would like to see it dip a little deeper below the 200 before declaring for certain that we are heading into at least a recession.
---------------------
Put yer neck braces on.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside -- 1232, 1275-1285
Downside -- 1188, 1143, 1102
-----------------------
SPX Daily
Not a lot in this chart. If you've been following me for awhile, you should be able to pick out the important things. We popped over the mid-bollingers today, which may mean we have even more short term pop to go and we are obviously correcting that crash of a move over the last few weeks.
I do believe though that we are close to finishing out the first leg of this correction. We will soon be whipsawed back to the downside.
There's 2 options here IMO;
1) We whipsaw back down here soon, maybe starting tomorrow. But its only the 2nd leg of the correction. The correction of the correction. Then we head higher once again to finish the correction somewhere around 1250.
2) We head straight to 1230-1250, then resume plunging straight to new lows from that point.
Elliot Wave would support both potential paths. Unfortunately, those are very different paths.
My challenge now is how/when to start scaling back in short in order not to miss the next big plunge without having to sit on loss too long waiting. Again, I think this is a job for shorting the leveraged bull ETFs.
I am tempted to make this move now and just wait for the next plunge because of how difficult it may be to time this whipsaw. Even if that means sitting on a loss for a bit.
---------------------
We got the death cross today. The 50 crossed under the 200 on the daily. It's now obvious although not super convincing yet. Would like to see it dip a little deeper below the 200 before declaring for certain that we are heading into at least a recession.
---------------------
Put yer neck braces on.
GL
CJ
Sunday, August 14, 2011
08.14.2011 -- How high
Key Levels
Upside -- 1188, 1233, 1281
Downside -- 1172, 1119, 1102
---------------------
We are overbought on the 30 min and hourlies, but everything other than that, (besides the monthly) we are oversold and on a buy still.
The futures are showing a pop for tomorrow's open. That pop may get sold on the open, but after that, we still have some buying to do. I still think something between 1235 and 1280 is going to be a good area to ditch a long before getting too greedy and scaling in short again. It's hard because of the volitility so the targets are moving rapidly, which is why the target area is so large. For example, the mid-bollingers on the daily moved from 1234 to 1196 in one day, since Thursday.
SPX Daily (without much actual analysis.. don't need it yet really)
You can see where we found some support there, erasing the entire move for the last year.
The 50dma looks to be crossing under the 200dma, but is not yet convincing. Unless we rally 100 points on the S&P tomorrow, we should get an obvious cross by Tuesday and it will be convincing by the end of next week. I think a death cross is unavoidable at this point. However, we may head all the way back up and test the 200dma and maybe even poke up above it a tad.
----------------------
I'm interested in whether we close this week as a green candle for the week. We put in a hammer candle last week, but it was a red hammer. You usually want a green hammer to be a bottom for a longer time period. This leads me to believe that the early part of this week may be very very green but then we may close out the week very very red. I think there's high potential of a mega whipsaw week here or potentially next week if this week closes out flat.
----------------------
Longer term, the charts still look horrible. As i've mentioned before, the monthlies just started rolling over. We may have a month here and there that close slightly green from day 1 to day 30..., but historically, the rollover in the monthlies usually results in a lot of very big red candles. Rallies will be sharp, but they will last weeks not months, and reverse quickly and hard.
----------------------
Make sure you have a home defense weapon or 2 for when the necessary cuts that must happen to welfare and medicade occur. The crime rate is going to be 10x higher in 5-10 years, depending on when this is forced upon the government.
---------------------
In the meantime, make some money off this rally and prepare to short it again.
GL
CJ
Upside -- 1188, 1233, 1281
Downside -- 1172, 1119, 1102
---------------------
We are overbought on the 30 min and hourlies, but everything other than that, (besides the monthly) we are oversold and on a buy still.
The futures are showing a pop for tomorrow's open. That pop may get sold on the open, but after that, we still have some buying to do. I still think something between 1235 and 1280 is going to be a good area to ditch a long before getting too greedy and scaling in short again. It's hard because of the volitility so the targets are moving rapidly, which is why the target area is so large. For example, the mid-bollingers on the daily moved from 1234 to 1196 in one day, since Thursday.
SPX Daily (without much actual analysis.. don't need it yet really)
You can see where we found some support there, erasing the entire move for the last year.
The 50dma looks to be crossing under the 200dma, but is not yet convincing. Unless we rally 100 points on the S&P tomorrow, we should get an obvious cross by Tuesday and it will be convincing by the end of next week. I think a death cross is unavoidable at this point. However, we may head all the way back up and test the 200dma and maybe even poke up above it a tad.
----------------------
I'm interested in whether we close this week as a green candle for the week. We put in a hammer candle last week, but it was a red hammer. You usually want a green hammer to be a bottom for a longer time period. This leads me to believe that the early part of this week may be very very green but then we may close out the week very very red. I think there's high potential of a mega whipsaw week here or potentially next week if this week closes out flat.
----------------------
Longer term, the charts still look horrible. As i've mentioned before, the monthlies just started rolling over. We may have a month here and there that close slightly green from day 1 to day 30..., but historically, the rollover in the monthlies usually results in a lot of very big red candles. Rallies will be sharp, but they will last weeks not months, and reverse quickly and hard.
----------------------
Make sure you have a home defense weapon or 2 for when the necessary cuts that must happen to welfare and medicade occur. The crime rate is going to be 10x higher in 5-10 years, depending on when this is forced upon the government.
---------------------
In the meantime, make some money off this rally and prepare to short it again.
GL
CJ
Thursday, August 11, 2011
08.11.2011 -- Major bounce or Minor bounce
Key Levels
Upside -- 1181, 1207, 1234
Downside -- 1153, 1136, 1115, 1102
---------------------
Yesterdays theory that it was significant that we held the lows is so far turning out to be a good move. The question now is how large this bounce becomes.
From an Elliot Wave theory standpoint, this could be a larger degree Wave 4 up or a small degree wave 4 up that is still part of a larger degree wave 3 down.
Essentially what that means is that we could reverse here and have another plunge lower, to new lows, before finishing this wave of selling and then have our significant bounce or we are going to have a significant bounce right now.
However, keep in mind, there is still a large degree wave 5 down left either way.
I don't generally bring up wave theory, but in this case it has something to tell us.. and that is this round of major selling is not over.. but we may have a significant bounce here before it finishes up for more than a week.
SPX Daily;
You can see here we've closed well back into the bollinger bands for the first time since the sell off started. Anyone who's followed me for awhile knows how much "stock" i put into that. It's significant and is strong evidence to me that we're going to have a pretty hefty bounce and not turn straight back down to new lows. I want to note though that we may pullback some of todays gains before moving on to higher prices.
1207-1234 is a likely area for this move, but we could go as high as 1280.
SPX hourly (10 week)
Here's all of our potential channel lines. I like 1234 as a target area for this bounce. It would also blend well with Elliot Wave as a wave 4 of this move from the top cannot exceed 1240 without violating rules. So that would test right up near that level, which would be fairly typical of market action.
The only thing that concerns me about this bounce continuing higher is if this wave 3 down we are in is not over and we are about to finish it. But I have scratched that idea because of us getting so far back into the bollingers, but I will be watching to make sure we stay in them. If we fall back out of them tomorrow, its game off for the bigger bounce.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, this is all part of a 5 wave structure that makes up WAVE 1.. the first wave of this very large Supercycle sized decline we are beginning. The WAVE 2 supercycle degree corrective may happen in the fall through Christmas and make us feel like the worst is over and the crisis is all done and over.
------------------------
Football starts tonight!! YES!!!!!
I'm a Redskins fan!!.. SHIT!!!!
GL
CJ
Upside -- 1181, 1207, 1234
Downside -- 1153, 1136, 1115, 1102
---------------------
Yesterdays theory that it was significant that we held the lows is so far turning out to be a good move. The question now is how large this bounce becomes.
From an Elliot Wave theory standpoint, this could be a larger degree Wave 4 up or a small degree wave 4 up that is still part of a larger degree wave 3 down.
Essentially what that means is that we could reverse here and have another plunge lower, to new lows, before finishing this wave of selling and then have our significant bounce or we are going to have a significant bounce right now.
However, keep in mind, there is still a large degree wave 5 down left either way.
I don't generally bring up wave theory, but in this case it has something to tell us.. and that is this round of major selling is not over.. but we may have a significant bounce here before it finishes up for more than a week.
SPX Daily;
You can see here we've closed well back into the bollinger bands for the first time since the sell off started. Anyone who's followed me for awhile knows how much "stock" i put into that. It's significant and is strong evidence to me that we're going to have a pretty hefty bounce and not turn straight back down to new lows. I want to note though that we may pullback some of todays gains before moving on to higher prices.
1207-1234 is a likely area for this move, but we could go as high as 1280.
SPX hourly (10 week)
Here's all of our potential channel lines. I like 1234 as a target area for this bounce. It would also blend well with Elliot Wave as a wave 4 of this move from the top cannot exceed 1240 without violating rules. So that would test right up near that level, which would be fairly typical of market action.
The only thing that concerns me about this bounce continuing higher is if this wave 3 down we are in is not over and we are about to finish it. But I have scratched that idea because of us getting so far back into the bollingers, but I will be watching to make sure we stay in them. If we fall back out of them tomorrow, its game off for the bigger bounce.
-----------------------
Keep in mind, this is all part of a 5 wave structure that makes up WAVE 1.. the first wave of this very large Supercycle sized decline we are beginning. The WAVE 2 supercycle degree corrective may happen in the fall through Christmas and make us feel like the worst is over and the crisis is all done and over.
------------------------
Football starts tonight!! YES!!!!!
I'm a Redskins fan!!.. SHIT!!!!
GL
CJ
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
08.10.2011 -- Held yesterdays low..
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1155, 1220
Downside -- 1102, 1039
--------------------------
We could either be at 1039 or 1220 by next Monday.
Our few hours of additional room for selling has turned into a days worth. However, we did hold above yesterdays intra-day low and we closed just slighty above the close 2 days ago.
A break of those levels on close could have opened the gates of hell, but we held them. The benefit of the doubt must be given that we held those and we have a chance to put in a real bounce here.
SPX Daily (15 years)
Here i want to show you the extreme level of oversold we are on the daily now.
The MACD has only been this low 3 times in the last 15 years and each time it became a major reversal point in a major selloff. It was only exceeded once in the last 15 years and that was during the worst of the 2008 crash.
The RSI has never exceeded this level to the downside in 15 years and was only equaled twice, both times during the bear market that followed the tech boom.
SPX Hourly (10 weeks)
On a much shorter timeline, this is what i think we are dealing with.
I think we will eventually form a channel somewhere in here. I've put trendlines in the places where it will likely form. I would not be surprised to kick off a rally here that tops somewhere around 1250.
The alternative is that we fall out of the bottom of this potential channel and take out 1102 to the downside, at which time we could potentially go straight to hell and not pass go or collect 200$.
Everytime in the past when it seemed that we were surely going to crash.. we haven't. So it's a long shot and the risk here is to the upside. You can risk 20 points for a potential 200 point win on the long side here.
-------------------------
The 50 day moving average closed on top of the 200 day moving average today. That means it is now unavoidable that the 50 will cross under the 200. Forming the dreaded "Death Cross."
We are now nearly certain to be in a bear market and will experience another recession at least.
Only a rally of epic proportions that goes nearly straight up and manages to get back above the 200, 100 and 50 day moving avearges can save what looks to be certain bad times.
---------------------------
Lots of rumors of banks imploding in Europe and on this shore we have Bank of America trading at 6$.
No doubt we also have some very very very damaged pension funds out there, assuming most of them came to the conclusion that 3% 10 year treasury rates would not keep their funds solvent over time and most likely took on a lot more risk in equities just as Uncle Ben was forcing them to do.
---------------------------
My guess is that baby boomers, after 2008 and now this, will have very damaged retirement funds and may now swear off the market for the rest of the lives. That means we've likely lost a very large percentage of their money from ever entering the market again, EVEN IF this ended right now and went straight back up.
This may be a very long bear market time wise.
If the baby boomers refuse to ever put money back to work and the last 10 years has left Generation Y and younger in positions with little savings or no jobs. That leaves only Generation X as a group that will need investment return to provide any type of decent retirement, since they are likely to see 50% or less of the current benefits from Social Security and Medicare.
I predict now, with almost no chance of being wrong...
There will be an epidemic of poor senior citizens in this country 15-25 years from now. Families will go back to old school ways in which the grandparents move back in with their children to take care of the grandchildren while the parents work to feed everyone.
The standard of living will be far lower than it is now. Explain that to your child.. he/she will be living a far lower standard of life than you are right now. Thank our "leaders" of the last 30 years for that.
GL
CJ
Upside -- 1155, 1220
Downside -- 1102, 1039
--------------------------
We could either be at 1039 or 1220 by next Monday.
Our few hours of additional room for selling has turned into a days worth. However, we did hold above yesterdays intra-day low and we closed just slighty above the close 2 days ago.
A break of those levels on close could have opened the gates of hell, but we held them. The benefit of the doubt must be given that we held those and we have a chance to put in a real bounce here.
SPX Daily (15 years)
Here i want to show you the extreme level of oversold we are on the daily now.
The MACD has only been this low 3 times in the last 15 years and each time it became a major reversal point in a major selloff. It was only exceeded once in the last 15 years and that was during the worst of the 2008 crash.
The RSI has never exceeded this level to the downside in 15 years and was only equaled twice, both times during the bear market that followed the tech boom.
SPX Hourly (10 weeks)
On a much shorter timeline, this is what i think we are dealing with.
I think we will eventually form a channel somewhere in here. I've put trendlines in the places where it will likely form. I would not be surprised to kick off a rally here that tops somewhere around 1250.
The alternative is that we fall out of the bottom of this potential channel and take out 1102 to the downside, at which time we could potentially go straight to hell and not pass go or collect 200$.
Everytime in the past when it seemed that we were surely going to crash.. we haven't. So it's a long shot and the risk here is to the upside. You can risk 20 points for a potential 200 point win on the long side here.
-------------------------
The 50 day moving average closed on top of the 200 day moving average today. That means it is now unavoidable that the 50 will cross under the 200. Forming the dreaded "Death Cross."
We are now nearly certain to be in a bear market and will experience another recession at least.
Only a rally of epic proportions that goes nearly straight up and manages to get back above the 200, 100 and 50 day moving avearges can save what looks to be certain bad times.
---------------------------
Lots of rumors of banks imploding in Europe and on this shore we have Bank of America trading at 6$.
No doubt we also have some very very very damaged pension funds out there, assuming most of them came to the conclusion that 3% 10 year treasury rates would not keep their funds solvent over time and most likely took on a lot more risk in equities just as Uncle Ben was forcing them to do.
---------------------------
My guess is that baby boomers, after 2008 and now this, will have very damaged retirement funds and may now swear off the market for the rest of the lives. That means we've likely lost a very large percentage of their money from ever entering the market again, EVEN IF this ended right now and went straight back up.
This may be a very long bear market time wise.
If the baby boomers refuse to ever put money back to work and the last 10 years has left Generation Y and younger in positions with little savings or no jobs. That leaves only Generation X as a group that will need investment return to provide any type of decent retirement, since they are likely to see 50% or less of the current benefits from Social Security and Medicare.
I predict now, with almost no chance of being wrong...
There will be an epidemic of poor senior citizens in this country 15-25 years from now. Families will go back to old school ways in which the grandparents move back in with their children to take care of the grandchildren while the parents work to feed everyone.
The standard of living will be far lower than it is now. Explain that to your child.. he/she will be living a far lower standard of life than you are right now. Thank our "leaders" of the last 30 years for that.
GL
CJ
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
08.09.2011 -- What now CJ?
How would I know? ;)
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1176, 1239, 1276
Downside -- 1102 (what we will now refer to as "the bottom" for now)
----------------------------
Before I get to charts, there were some good lessons learned the last few weeks;
1) Bull rallies take years, massive selloffs happen very quickly. You have to be on the train before it starts moving or you miss it.
2) 3x ETFs slippage is massive. We'll use TZA (3x inverse of Russel 2000) as an example. TZA hit a high today of 69$. IWM hit a low of 63.79. Last time IWM was at 63.79 was 09/10/2010. At that time, TZA was at 96$. For a 1 year slippage loss of 30%. ... if you go back further its even worse, on 01/04/10 IWM was also right around 63.79... TZA on 01/05/2010? 143$. Get it folks.. DO NOT hold these things long for long periods of time, you lose. If anything, short the opposite. Dont go long TNA (for more than a few weeks).. short TZA and vice versa.
3) Bear market rallies will rip you a new asshole.
------------------------
Charts;
SPX Daily (25 year)
We appear to have bounced off the long term uptrend line you see here. That indeed is powerful support. You can see it stopped the 2000 bubble pop, but it did not stop the 2008 selloff. It has stopped us here temporarily, but I believe we will break it, its just a matter of time.
SPX Daily (3 months)
So here's our short term picture. We closed just below the bollinger bands on the daily. I have to think that we're probably going to climb back in them, but maybe not before some additional selling. However, if we break back into the bollinger bands at any point, the target becomes AT LEAST 1239, and more likely we may test the 200dma.
---------------------------
I want to talk overbought and oversold for a bit. Obviously, as I've mentioned before, being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot in these types of moves. They can just keep becoming more and more extended, as we have seen.
However, they are still of some use to us. Pay attention to the overbought/oversold indicators in the following charts.
This will be a lot of charts.. but its necessary to display to you my opinion here;
S&P 5 Minute chart;
We are obviously extremely overbought on a 5 minute chart. So on a very short term basis, we may see some pullback here, but because this is a 5 min chart, the pullback could last less than an hour.
SPX 10 min.
Also very overbought. So again on a short term basis, we could have a pullback here soon. But again, it may only last a couple hours now.
SPX 30 min.
Ok. Here we are becoming overbought, but we are not quite there. So we have room in a 30 min chart for more buying. So now what we have is a potential pullback that lasts a couple hours.. followed by several hours of more buying.
SPX hourly
K folks.. what do we have here? The hourlies are JUST starting to turn up off very oversold. So now what I think may happen is a couple hours of pullback/selling, and then now another round of buying that may last several days to a week or more.
SPX Weekly
Now what do we have? The weeklies are in the middle of a fall and have more selling to do. So now what's expected is about a week or so of buying, followed by more intense selling that lasts in terms of weeks to a month.
SPX Monthly
And the monthlies. The monthlies JUST STARTED rolling over.
So what do you get from all that? You get that we are likely to see a rally that lasts up to a week or so here, but then quickly heads south for another round of major selling that lasts several weeks. After that, we likely will have another bounce at some point and will have to re-visit this exercise again to time it, but overall the monthlies say this market will be heading in a primary direction of down for a long time.
------------------------
No death cross yet, but its very close. I think we have one by end of the week unless the S&P rallies some 200+ points in a few days.
GL
CJ
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1176, 1239, 1276
Downside -- 1102 (what we will now refer to as "the bottom" for now)
----------------------------
Before I get to charts, there were some good lessons learned the last few weeks;
1) Bull rallies take years, massive selloffs happen very quickly. You have to be on the train before it starts moving or you miss it.
2) 3x ETFs slippage is massive. We'll use TZA (3x inverse of Russel 2000) as an example. TZA hit a high today of 69$. IWM hit a low of 63.79. Last time IWM was at 63.79 was 09/10/2010. At that time, TZA was at 96$. For a 1 year slippage loss of 30%. ... if you go back further its even worse, on 01/04/10 IWM was also right around 63.79... TZA on 01/05/2010? 143$. Get it folks.. DO NOT hold these things long for long periods of time, you lose. If anything, short the opposite. Dont go long TNA (for more than a few weeks).. short TZA and vice versa.
3) Bear market rallies will rip you a new asshole.
------------------------
Charts;
SPX Daily (25 year)
We appear to have bounced off the long term uptrend line you see here. That indeed is powerful support. You can see it stopped the 2000 bubble pop, but it did not stop the 2008 selloff. It has stopped us here temporarily, but I believe we will break it, its just a matter of time.
SPX Daily (3 months)
So here's our short term picture. We closed just below the bollinger bands on the daily. I have to think that we're probably going to climb back in them, but maybe not before some additional selling. However, if we break back into the bollinger bands at any point, the target becomes AT LEAST 1239, and more likely we may test the 200dma.
---------------------------
I want to talk overbought and oversold for a bit. Obviously, as I've mentioned before, being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a whole hell of a lot in these types of moves. They can just keep becoming more and more extended, as we have seen.
However, they are still of some use to us. Pay attention to the overbought/oversold indicators in the following charts.
This will be a lot of charts.. but its necessary to display to you my opinion here;
S&P 5 Minute chart;
We are obviously extremely overbought on a 5 minute chart. So on a very short term basis, we may see some pullback here, but because this is a 5 min chart, the pullback could last less than an hour.
SPX 10 min.
Also very overbought. So again on a short term basis, we could have a pullback here soon. But again, it may only last a couple hours now.
SPX 30 min.
Ok. Here we are becoming overbought, but we are not quite there. So we have room in a 30 min chart for more buying. So now what we have is a potential pullback that lasts a couple hours.. followed by several hours of more buying.
SPX hourly
K folks.. what do we have here? The hourlies are JUST starting to turn up off very oversold. So now what I think may happen is a couple hours of pullback/selling, and then now another round of buying that may last several days to a week or more.
SPX Weekly
Now what do we have? The weeklies are in the middle of a fall and have more selling to do. So now what's expected is about a week or so of buying, followed by more intense selling that lasts in terms of weeks to a month.
SPX Monthly
And the monthlies. The monthlies JUST STARTED rolling over.
So what do you get from all that? You get that we are likely to see a rally that lasts up to a week or so here, but then quickly heads south for another round of major selling that lasts several weeks. After that, we likely will have another bounce at some point and will have to re-visit this exercise again to time it, but overall the monthlies say this market will be heading in a primary direction of down for a long time.
------------------------
No death cross yet, but its very close. I think we have one by end of the week unless the S&P rallies some 200+ points in a few days.
GL
CJ
Monday, August 8, 2011
08.08.2011 -- Crash or dash.. pick one..
We are either going to completely fall apart here and do a 1987 swan dive to who knows where... or we are going to find a low here soon and have a rip roarer of a rally.
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1193, 1255
Downside -- 1080's ish, 1068, 1037
-----------------------
SPX daily ( I had to back out to 25 years to find where a bounce might come trendline wise)
These are 2 long term trend lines that exists since the early 80's. These will be 2 areas of powerful support. 1 is only about 20-30 points below where we are right now.
Because of the severity of this plunge though, there's really no telling when we might suddenly reverse and rip higher.
The risk of a 1987 style crash exists here. The levels of support are very spread apart here and we appear to be in the bottom part of a parabolic sell off.
Between where we are right now and 1068, there are definitely long term support lines. Powerful ones. Pinpointing them is difficult because changing how you draw the line ever so slightly can result in a 20 point change in target. So it makes for a range... here to 1068 is definitely a range of major support.
Below that gets hairy (as if this isn't hair enuogh already).. theres sort of an airpocket from there to the 800s on the S&P.
------------------------------
At this point, theres almost no way to avoid a death cross. The spread of the 50 to 200dma was 10 points this morning. We'll probably get a cross by Thursday, even if we have a violent bounce.
So whether this market has a violent bounce here... or we just continue this plunge and crash 1987 style... one way or the other... we are now in a bear market and it's going to get ugly.
------------------------------
The market is forward looking by 6 months to a year or so. Meaning, its predicting whats going to happen in the economy anywhere from 6 months to 12 months from now.
Obviously, this means things are going to look significantly worse heading through the beginning of next year.
There will be some bank closures, the unemployment rate is probably going much higher, and overall standard of living is going to come down.
I suggest you assume these things will happen and take appropriate steps in your life.
GL
CJ
Key Levels;
Upside -- 1193, 1255
Downside -- 1080's ish, 1068, 1037
-----------------------
SPX daily ( I had to back out to 25 years to find where a bounce might come trendline wise)
These are 2 long term trend lines that exists since the early 80's. These will be 2 areas of powerful support. 1 is only about 20-30 points below where we are right now.
Because of the severity of this plunge though, there's really no telling when we might suddenly reverse and rip higher.
The risk of a 1987 style crash exists here. The levels of support are very spread apart here and we appear to be in the bottom part of a parabolic sell off.
Between where we are right now and 1068, there are definitely long term support lines. Powerful ones. Pinpointing them is difficult because changing how you draw the line ever so slightly can result in a 20 point change in target. So it makes for a range... here to 1068 is definitely a range of major support.
Below that gets hairy (as if this isn't hair enuogh already).. theres sort of an airpocket from there to the 800s on the S&P.
------------------------------
At this point, theres almost no way to avoid a death cross. The spread of the 50 to 200dma was 10 points this morning. We'll probably get a cross by Thursday, even if we have a violent bounce.
So whether this market has a violent bounce here... or we just continue this plunge and crash 1987 style... one way or the other... we are now in a bear market and it's going to get ugly.
------------------------------
The market is forward looking by 6 months to a year or so. Meaning, its predicting whats going to happen in the economy anywhere from 6 months to 12 months from now.
Obviously, this means things are going to look significantly worse heading through the beginning of next year.
There will be some bank closures, the unemployment rate is probably going much higher, and overall standard of living is going to come down.
I suggest you assume these things will happen and take appropriate steps in your life.
GL
CJ
Sunday, August 7, 2011
08.07.2011 -- OMG!! THE WORLD IS GOING TO IMPLODE!!!
Careful when sentiment sounds like the title of this thread if you're a bear.
Key Levels
Upside -- 1230, 1276, 1286
Downside -- 1168, 1116, 1093
--------------------------
Just 1 chart tonight, because of the circumstances anything can happen, so I think trading off pure technicals is out the window...
SPX Daily (3 year)
Notice that we've held that channel now twice. The market still has a chance to be in an uptrend, there still COULD be another big rally left before real hell breaks loose.
No doubt though, the market is in real trouble right here. We are well below all moving averages and there's very little strength anywhere.
Sentiment has obviously shifted pretty drastically in just 2 weeks. I would be careful here if you're a bear. Could we crash here and now? yes we could.. the conditions exist for it to happen. I tend to think though that we may get a surprise rally tomorrow and hold that channel and get a ripping rally out of nowhere that drastically shifts sentiment yet again and primes the pump for the real plunge.
I'm interested to see what happens to treasury bonds tomorrow. If bond yields aren't doing a rocket shot.. I would be wary of remaining short. If yields go phsyco north though, we may be staring at a real plunge into darkness here and now. Honestly though, I dont expect that, but bond yields will a good tell.
Crazy crazy stuff... should make for an interesting night and day tomorrow.
GL
CJ
Key Levels
Upside -- 1230, 1276, 1286
Downside -- 1168, 1116, 1093
--------------------------
Just 1 chart tonight, because of the circumstances anything can happen, so I think trading off pure technicals is out the window...
SPX Daily (3 year)
Notice that we've held that channel now twice. The market still has a chance to be in an uptrend, there still COULD be another big rally left before real hell breaks loose.
No doubt though, the market is in real trouble right here. We are well below all moving averages and there's very little strength anywhere.
Sentiment has obviously shifted pretty drastically in just 2 weeks. I would be careful here if you're a bear. Could we crash here and now? yes we could.. the conditions exist for it to happen. I tend to think though that we may get a surprise rally tomorrow and hold that channel and get a ripping rally out of nowhere that drastically shifts sentiment yet again and primes the pump for the real plunge.
I'm interested to see what happens to treasury bonds tomorrow. If bond yields aren't doing a rocket shot.. I would be wary of remaining short. If yields go phsyco north though, we may be staring at a real plunge into darkness here and now. Honestly though, I dont expect that, but bond yields will a good tell.
Crazy crazy stuff... should make for an interesting night and day tomorrow.
GL
CJ
Thursday, August 4, 2011
08.04.2011 -- So much for that chance...
Key Levels
Upside -- 1249, 1286
Downside -- Hell .. haha... 1175-1185 better hold
-------------------------------
Yeah, so, that hammer didn't mean shit. Horribly ugly day that has cemented in some kind of major economic smashing already building.
You'd think we'd be extremely oversold on the daily, but we arent really yet. We're definitely quite oversold, but I've seen much worse extreme's than where we are now.
On the Monthly... We JUST STARTED rolling over!!.. ouch.
SPX Daily; (had to move to 2 years from 7 months)
1175-1185 is the only thing stopping us from violating an multi-year uptrend. There market absolutely HAS to make a stand there. If we violate it, my long term target (with many bumps along the way), becomes something in the S&P 350-450 range. Not sure what America will look like with the S&P sitting at 350.
We may have a violent bounce in the meantime, but this down move WILL test that trendline.. so that 1175-1185 area is very likely to be tested.
Here's an SPX monthly chart for 10 years;
Look at the MACD, Stochs and RSI... they JUST STARTED rolling over. That is somewhat horrifying that we are at 1200, tanking horribly and the monthlies just began to turn at the top of overbought conditions.
The monthlies have violated that multi-year uptrend line already btw. So about 30 points lower than we are now and all support is lost.
Also note that the tankage here is looking worse than the 2007 top. Also horrifying.
----------------------
Everything is broke... giant 7 month H&S pattern in the S&P, 7 month giant Mega-phone patterns in the Russel 2000 and Transports.
Here are those 2 charts for you;
-----------------------
This is probably winning the "ugliest shit i've ever seen" contest in the markets.
There's no support anywhere..there's no strength left at all. It's just massive across the board selling and treasuries yields are cliff diving into deflationary hell zone.
-----------------------
Don't want to get too doomy here, the market can still hold 1175-1185 and remain in an uptrend.
If that breaks though... if we solidly break the multi-year uptrend line.. all of our lives may be radically different in 2-3 years.
GL... seriously.. GL
CJ
Upside -- 1249, 1286
Downside -- Hell .. haha... 1175-1185 better hold
-------------------------------
Yeah, so, that hammer didn't mean shit. Horribly ugly day that has cemented in some kind of major economic smashing already building.
You'd think we'd be extremely oversold on the daily, but we arent really yet. We're definitely quite oversold, but I've seen much worse extreme's than where we are now.
On the Monthly... We JUST STARTED rolling over!!.. ouch.
SPX Daily; (had to move to 2 years from 7 months)
1175-1185 is the only thing stopping us from violating an multi-year uptrend. There market absolutely HAS to make a stand there. If we violate it, my long term target (with many bumps along the way), becomes something in the S&P 350-450 range. Not sure what America will look like with the S&P sitting at 350.
We may have a violent bounce in the meantime, but this down move WILL test that trendline.. so that 1175-1185 area is very likely to be tested.
Here's an SPX monthly chart for 10 years;
Look at the MACD, Stochs and RSI... they JUST STARTED rolling over. That is somewhat horrifying that we are at 1200, tanking horribly and the monthlies just began to turn at the top of overbought conditions.
The monthlies have violated that multi-year uptrend line already btw. So about 30 points lower than we are now and all support is lost.
Also note that the tankage here is looking worse than the 2007 top. Also horrifying.
----------------------
Everything is broke... giant 7 month H&S pattern in the S&P, 7 month giant Mega-phone patterns in the Russel 2000 and Transports.
Here are those 2 charts for you;
-----------------------
This is probably winning the "ugliest shit i've ever seen" contest in the markets.
There's no support anywhere..there's no strength left at all. It's just massive across the board selling and treasuries yields are cliff diving into deflationary hell zone.
-----------------------
Don't want to get too doomy here, the market can still hold 1175-1185 and remain in an uptrend.
If that breaks though... if we solidly break the multi-year uptrend line.. all of our lives may be radically different in 2-3 years.
GL... seriously.. GL
CJ
Wednesday, August 3, 2011
08.03.2011 -- Reversal?
Key Levels
Upside -- 1274, 1286, 1305
Downside -- 1241, 1229, 1175
------------------------------
Don't have a ton of time again tonight, so quickly;
SPX Daily;
The market managed 2 things today.. it printed a big reversal "hammer" candle. It also closed back above the neckline of the huge H&S.
It appears that the market will attempt to correct oversold levels on the daily and make some sort of run here. Pay attention to how strong this rally is. (if we do get one)
The market is by no means out of the woods. It just gave itself a chance today. All indicies are still below all moving averages and the charts still look very bad.
It has a chance, so lets see what it does with it. At a minimum, it needs to get back over the 200 at 1286.
GL
CJ
Upside -- 1274, 1286, 1305
Downside -- 1241, 1229, 1175
------------------------------
Don't have a ton of time again tonight, so quickly;
SPX Daily;
The market managed 2 things today.. it printed a big reversal "hammer" candle. It also closed back above the neckline of the huge H&S.
It appears that the market will attempt to correct oversold levels on the daily and make some sort of run here. Pay attention to how strong this rally is. (if we do get one)
The market is by no means out of the woods. It just gave itself a chance today. All indicies are still below all moving averages and the charts still look very bad.
It has a chance, so lets see what it does with it. At a minimum, it needs to get back over the 200 at 1286.
GL
CJ
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
08.02.2011 -- Stab twist
Ouch.
God damn, I'd hate to see what would have happened had they voted no.
Key Levels
Upside -- 1285, 1306, I'll update further than that if necessary tomorrow
Downside -- 1249, 1175, 1129. yeah.. we are pretty much in crash land, theres like 50 point chunks between support and none of it is strong.
---------------------------
This is why I said that I was confused about what we are pricing in. We obviously weren't pricing in a possible NO vote. I believe we are pricing in an unavoidable bout of deflation. You see it in the treasury market and you see it now in the stock market. It only needs to start becoming very obvious in the dollar.
It will be interesting to watch gold. Gold will continue to be the hedge against world order collapse, but at the same time, we may see the dollar soar here. If we ever get to a point where the dollar is soaring, we are deflating, but it becomes obvious that the world isn't going to devolve into mad max land, we could see a gold collapse. It is not impossible. I know Tyler Durden will argue that to the end of the earth and he certainly has reasons to think that, but it is possible that we deflate without destroying civilization. Gold would not like that. Zerohedge though could correctly surmise that the overlord Bernanke will continue on his money printing extravaganza to the point of causing the end of civilization, thus Gold is certain to win, but.. honestly, do you really "win" if that happens?
Charts are fugly folks.. If the market is going to drag in bears and then do a mega-reverse, it will do it soon. If it doesn't do it soon, it is most likely doomed.
SPX Daily;
We might have broke that 7 month Head and Shoulders. There's still a pin bottom to contend with at 1249. The market BETTER hold 1249. Below that on a close would be an obviously broke pattern and a very large one at that.
Spread between the 50 and 200 is 21 points now. It will be less tomorrow.
Russel 200 (IWM) daily;
We lost the Russel 2000. It seems to have broken some type of either megaphone or messy head and shoulder pattern. It's well below the 200dma. It's a pretty convincing break too.
DOW Transports;
The Trannies are on the very edge of breaking a 7 month mega-phone top. They haven't broken it yet, but it's right there. It best make a stand here. Trannies are the only thing that isn't quite broken yet. It's well below all moving averages though, it just hasn't quite broken this huge pattern.
DOW Industrials;
DOW looks broke too, although it has some decent support around 11600. But it's also below the 200 and appears to have broken below a big channel.
---------------------------
Don't know what else to say here. The market better reverse hardcore here within a few days. If not... not good things are going to happen. There is very little support down here, and what support there is was built on such low volume churn that it's like standing on super thin ice.
I think we're toast, but of course usually when I think that is when a huge reversal comes out of nowhere, but it's hard to argue these charts.
Almost every index and sector is well below the 200dma..
Semi's
Financials
Russel 2000
Trannies
S&P 500
Industrials
Even the Fucking REIT's and DJUSRE sold off below the 200.
There's nothing left to support. I'm not sure when the last time I've seen a state like that is... probably well into the 2008 collapse.
AND on a freaking YES vote to the debt ceiling. I kind of saw that coming yesterday, but wow. It seems like nothing short of announcing QE3 for something that has trillions in it is going to move this thing.
Put yer helmets on... and stock up on food, water, and cash.
GL
CJ
God damn, I'd hate to see what would have happened had they voted no.
Key Levels
Upside -- 1285, 1306, I'll update further than that if necessary tomorrow
Downside -- 1249, 1175, 1129. yeah.. we are pretty much in crash land, theres like 50 point chunks between support and none of it is strong.
---------------------------
This is why I said that I was confused about what we are pricing in. We obviously weren't pricing in a possible NO vote. I believe we are pricing in an unavoidable bout of deflation. You see it in the treasury market and you see it now in the stock market. It only needs to start becoming very obvious in the dollar.
It will be interesting to watch gold. Gold will continue to be the hedge against world order collapse, but at the same time, we may see the dollar soar here. If we ever get to a point where the dollar is soaring, we are deflating, but it becomes obvious that the world isn't going to devolve into mad max land, we could see a gold collapse. It is not impossible. I know Tyler Durden will argue that to the end of the earth and he certainly has reasons to think that, but it is possible that we deflate without destroying civilization. Gold would not like that. Zerohedge though could correctly surmise that the overlord Bernanke will continue on his money printing extravaganza to the point of causing the end of civilization, thus Gold is certain to win, but.. honestly, do you really "win" if that happens?
Charts are fugly folks.. If the market is going to drag in bears and then do a mega-reverse, it will do it soon. If it doesn't do it soon, it is most likely doomed.
SPX Daily;
We might have broke that 7 month Head and Shoulders. There's still a pin bottom to contend with at 1249. The market BETTER hold 1249. Below that on a close would be an obviously broke pattern and a very large one at that.
Spread between the 50 and 200 is 21 points now. It will be less tomorrow.
Russel 200 (IWM) daily;
We lost the Russel 2000. It seems to have broken some type of either megaphone or messy head and shoulder pattern. It's well below the 200dma. It's a pretty convincing break too.
DOW Transports;
The Trannies are on the very edge of breaking a 7 month mega-phone top. They haven't broken it yet, but it's right there. It best make a stand here. Trannies are the only thing that isn't quite broken yet. It's well below all moving averages though, it just hasn't quite broken this huge pattern.
DOW Industrials;
DOW looks broke too, although it has some decent support around 11600. But it's also below the 200 and appears to have broken below a big channel.
---------------------------
Don't know what else to say here. The market better reverse hardcore here within a few days. If not... not good things are going to happen. There is very little support down here, and what support there is was built on such low volume churn that it's like standing on super thin ice.
I think we're toast, but of course usually when I think that is when a huge reversal comes out of nowhere, but it's hard to argue these charts.
Almost every index and sector is well below the 200dma..
Semi's
Financials
Russel 2000
Trannies
S&P 500
Industrials
Even the Fucking REIT's and DJUSRE sold off below the 200.
There's nothing left to support. I'm not sure when the last time I've seen a state like that is... probably well into the 2008 collapse.
AND on a freaking YES vote to the debt ceiling. I kind of saw that coming yesterday, but wow. It seems like nothing short of announcing QE3 for something that has trillions in it is going to move this thing.
Put yer helmets on... and stock up on food, water, and cash.
GL
CJ
Monday, August 1, 2011
08.01.2011 -- 1 day left
Key Levels;
Upside - 1299, 1308, 1316, 1318 and 1340
Downside - 1285 and 1261
--------------------------------
Sorry, don't have a lot of time to get too in depth here.
SPX Daily;
Luckily for me, there isn't a whole lot to talk about here.
We are sitting right on the 200dma. It's do or die time for the market. Interestingly, this is occurring just as we are running up on the debt ceiling debate and deadline.
We have a large Head and Shoulder formation in play and any significant move below the 200dma is going to put a death cross in play. The spread between the 50 and 200 will be down to about 21.5 points tomorrow. The 50 is declining and the 200 is still rising and leveling off. Any further tankage will cause the 50 to fall that much faster and close that gap quicker.
The Daily is getting oversold, but it is not extreme yet, we could still sell off quite a bit here before a bounce.
I'm very curious to see what the market does based on this vote. I'm inclined to think that we may sell off on a Yes and sell off twice as hard on a No.
We'll see soon enough...
GL
CJ
Upside - 1299, 1308, 1316, 1318 and 1340
Downside - 1285 and 1261
--------------------------------
Sorry, don't have a lot of time to get too in depth here.
SPX Daily;
Luckily for me, there isn't a whole lot to talk about here.
We are sitting right on the 200dma. It's do or die time for the market. Interestingly, this is occurring just as we are running up on the debt ceiling debate and deadline.
We have a large Head and Shoulder formation in play and any significant move below the 200dma is going to put a death cross in play. The spread between the 50 and 200 will be down to about 21.5 points tomorrow. The 50 is declining and the 200 is still rising and leveling off. Any further tankage will cause the 50 to fall that much faster and close that gap quicker.
The Daily is getting oversold, but it is not extreme yet, we could still sell off quite a bit here before a bounce.
I'm very curious to see what the market does based on this vote. I'm inclined to think that we may sell off on a Yes and sell off twice as hard on a No.
We'll see soon enough...
GL
CJ
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