Upside -- 1249, 1286
Downside -- Hell .. haha... 1175-1185 better hold
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Yeah, so, that hammer didn't mean shit. Horribly ugly day that has cemented in some kind of major economic smashing already building.
You'd think we'd be extremely oversold on the daily, but we arent really yet. We're definitely quite oversold, but I've seen much worse extreme's than where we are now.
On the Monthly... We JUST STARTED rolling over!!.. ouch.
SPX Daily; (had to move to 2 years from 7 months)
1175-1185 is the only thing stopping us from violating an multi-year uptrend. There market absolutely HAS to make a stand there. If we violate it, my long term target (with many bumps along the way), becomes something in the S&P 350-450 range. Not sure what America will look like with the S&P sitting at 350.
We may have a violent bounce in the meantime, but this down move WILL test that trendline.. so that 1175-1185 area is very likely to be tested.
Here's an SPX monthly chart for 10 years;
Look at the MACD, Stochs and RSI... they JUST STARTED rolling over. That is somewhat horrifying that we are at 1200, tanking horribly and the monthlies just began to turn at the top of overbought conditions.
The monthlies have violated that multi-year uptrend line already btw. So about 30 points lower than we are now and all support is lost.
Also note that the tankage here is looking worse than the 2007 top. Also horrifying.
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Everything is broke... giant 7 month H&S pattern in the S&P, 7 month giant Mega-phone patterns in the Russel 2000 and Transports.
Here are those 2 charts for you;
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This is probably winning the "ugliest shit i've ever seen" contest in the markets.
There's no support anywhere..there's no strength left at all. It's just massive across the board selling and treasuries yields are cliff diving into deflationary hell zone.
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Don't want to get too doomy here, the market can still hold 1175-1185 and remain in an uptrend.
If that breaks though... if we solidly break the multi-year uptrend line.. all of our lives may be radically different in 2-3 years.
GL... seriously.. GL
CJ
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