Upside -- 1188, 1233, 1281
Downside -- 1172, 1119, 1102
---------------------
We are overbought on the 30 min and hourlies, but everything other than that, (besides the monthly) we are oversold and on a buy still.
The futures are showing a pop for tomorrow's open. That pop may get sold on the open, but after that, we still have some buying to do. I still think something between 1235 and 1280 is going to be a good area to ditch a long before getting too greedy and scaling in short again. It's hard because of the volitility so the targets are moving rapidly, which is why the target area is so large. For example, the mid-bollingers on the daily moved from 1234 to 1196 in one day, since Thursday.
SPX Daily (without much actual analysis.. don't need it yet really)
You can see where we found some support there, erasing the entire move for the last year.
The 50dma looks to be crossing under the 200dma, but is not yet convincing. Unless we rally 100 points on the S&P tomorrow, we should get an obvious cross by Tuesday and it will be convincing by the end of next week. I think a death cross is unavoidable at this point. However, we may head all the way back up and test the 200dma and maybe even poke up above it a tad.
----------------------
I'm interested in whether we close this week as a green candle for the week. We put in a hammer candle last week, but it was a red hammer. You usually want a green hammer to be a bottom for a longer time period. This leads me to believe that the early part of this week may be very very green but then we may close out the week very very red. I think there's high potential of a mega whipsaw week here or potentially next week if this week closes out flat.
----------------------
Longer term, the charts still look horrible. As i've mentioned before, the monthlies just started rolling over. We may have a month here and there that close slightly green from day 1 to day 30..., but historically, the rollover in the monthlies usually results in a lot of very big red candles. Rallies will be sharp, but they will last weeks not months, and reverse quickly and hard.
----------------------
Make sure you have a home defense weapon or 2 for when the necessary cuts that must happen to welfare and medicade occur. The crime rate is going to be 10x higher in 5-10 years, depending on when this is forced upon the government.
---------------------
In the meantime, make some money off this rally and prepare to short it again.
GL
CJ
No comments:
Post a Comment