I've been absent for a couple weeks. This market is almost too crazy to attempt to relate daily commentary to.
So i will keep the updates short and sweet and very technical.
822 was the 50% fib retrace of the rally from 748 to 898. We closed beneath it, but not enough to convince... it could just be a pin underneath. It was a huge down move, but did so on very low volume. (at least compared to recent volume, which is what matters)
804 is the 61.8% fib retrace. If we close below that.. we are going to head for a double bottom test.
An inverse H&S is in play.. 900 is the neckline. A close above 900 could be a massive breakout north.
I have no big bets in either direction right now...
Here are my options...
TBT .. ultrashort long bonds... we have a potential bubble in treasury long bonds. Ben is going to keep this going by buying the long end of the curve, so this is just an idea for the future.
UYM and ERX... UYM is 2x basic materials long... ERX is 3x energy long... these should both kick ass if the government manages to reinflate the economy. Cause if they do.. there is no way they shut off the money spigot quick enough to not cause massive inflation. Commodities will do well.
If deflation wins... well... save every penny... cause you'll need it.
FAS is also a potential short term trading option... 3x financial bull.... the nice thing though about FAS is it is mostly comprised of Russel 1000 financial companies.. which have much more to gain from the destruction of the large conglomerates like Citigroup going into the future....
if we have one...
GL trading.
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