Tuesday, May 5, 2009

05/05/09 Rally on.. Nothings wrong, nothing to see here

Yeah so if you hadn't noticed, we broke the 875 level from my last post and shot up 32 points.

There's really nothing stopping us from going straight to the 200DMA which is 960. Although, I don't think that will be the top of this rally and it would be too easy for the bulls if we just went straight on up to it.

There's not a lot of technical analysis to do here.. if you try to apply a Elliot Wave count, there's a number of ways you could call it. We have some signals that say correction near and yet others that say rally on.

How the market reacts to the stress test results will be key here I think. The instant reaction will probably be wrong as is usual. However, how the day ENDS after the results are announced is what will be important.

I'm on the sidelines personally. Trading at the moment is too much like gambling. It's a roll of the dice where this market will be sitting by next Monday morning.

The continous rally up to the stress tests results is curious though. You would have thought the opposite would happen as no one would want to be long through the annoucement... this could be setting up a sell the news event and kick off the long awaited pullback.

But like I said, it's a roll of the dice at this point. My advice is to wait, see what the reaction is, and then position yourself in that direction.

That's what i'm doing. :)

GL trading.

No comments: