Upside -- 1344, 1353 and 1360's
Downside -- 1344, 1334, 1322, 1316, 1311
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Here's the deal, we need to immediately get above 1344 and not dip back below it tomorrow morning. If that doesn't happen, we'll pullback at least 10 points.
Here's the SPX Daily;
There you see why we needed to clear 1344. We didn't and it's a prime reversal spot for a pullback if it's not convincingly taken out. There's 10 points of air back to 1334, just to the top of the bollingers. The daily Stochs, RSI and MACD still have plenty of room, so this move is not over, but if there's goign to be a pullback before going on to top them out, it's going to happen from this spot.
Here's the hourly;
Same deal, there's that pesky 1344 again. We are right on the edge of that channel. We need to immediately clear it in the morning with a gap or just start there and head right up. The hourlies are approaching extreme levels of overbought on the MACD now in addition to the stochs already being very overbought, the RSI isn't extreme, but certainly in overbought territory. These can of course stay overbought and get even worse, but only if we clear 1344 and in that case, I think we'll continue the crazy green candle rampings right up to challenging the 52 week high on the DOW and S&P.
Other items of note;
* They are ramping the finnies with big gap ups. They managed to get them back over the 50, but still well below the 100/200. The finnies already had a death cross in the XLF. This appears to be nothing more than a dead cat bounce to me. As i've said though, this market can go to new 52 week highs with them dead cat bouncing, I just don't believe it can go to new All time highs with the finnies in a confirmed bear market.
*** of particular note.. The momo's had a curiously bad day. Almost ALL of them... odd.. AMZN, NFLX, CMG, LULU, PCLN, all red. AAPL was flat too, although I don't really lump AAPL in with true momo's like AMZN with P/E's of 5 gazillion. Seems strange... gap ramping the finnies and the momo's all sell off. Smells of distribution...
We'll see, looking at it, I expect us to maybe take out 1344 on the open and then proceed to trade right under it. I believe we get a pullback here. But honestly it could go either way. If we put in another big green candle tomorrow, i'm very curious what the momo complex does.
SOX still sucking.. market needs that patient to be medicated.
GL
CJ
4 comments:
my call at the close yesterday looking pretty solid,,,another up day although i'd love to see 10pts down to add to my long,,,,if we slice through 1351 today we may just sprint up to 1376 (sometime next week?) and then see a small pullback (possibly as much as 2-3%)before the run to 1400 and beyond,,,,
my ideal scenerio however would be to see the mkts spooked on the debt ceiling chatter over the next two weeks and sell down to low 1300's at which time would be an all-in moment on the long side given we'll finish up the year solidly above 1400
open showing very little chance of a 10pt pullback,,,,,expecting an up day,,,aapl perking up after a 30pt run this week,,,mo-mo's getting their mojo back,,,content riding the bull to 1376 at this point,,,perhaps the pullback comes at that level???? or do we get the 1400 print next???? time to turn off the computer and enjoy the day!!!!
wow,,,just got back in,,,,ndx at 10/11 year high???? yowswer,,,,how bout them aapl's (ath)???? mo-mo loooookin' gooooood indeed,,,goog-ster up 11 bucks,,,,chipot-lay 6++++++(ath),,,,
cj,,,,imo,,,,best chances for a 10pt pullback come monday if no news on getting closer to debt ceiling over the w/e,,,if closer resolution then moon monday maybe and we tag 1376 next week,,,,
speaking of aapl,,,i seriously think that w/i 6-9 months it replaces intc or csco in the dow 30,,,that would assure the dow will be at ath's well before end of 2012,,,,
have a great w/e cj! keep up the great work!!!
one final thought,,,,if not for cat & vz,,,,dow could have been up close to 100 today,,,,,which reminds me,,,,,GET_DOW_13K_HAT_READY! rofl rofl rofl.....
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