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Key Levels
Upside -- 1220, 1236, 1248, 1265
Downside -- 1166, 1145, 1118, 1102
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Lots of whipsaws as expected, but not much has changed from 2 weeks ago. There's a couple different Elliot Wave counts here. They mean totally opposite things with 1 count seeing 1040 within 3-4 weeks and the other count seeing 1245-1280 within a couple weeks.
I'm in the camp that we are going to see the 1245-1280 range before the next crash phase begins.
The other camp is that we will see something around 1040 and THEN a rally to the mid 1200's before the next crash phase begins.
Either way, I believe we eventually see that mid 1200's target before we get the real plunge that takes us well below 1000 on the S&P.
Just 1 chart tonight (I'm easing my way back into posting)..
SPX Daily
There's our corrective bear flag.. either a wave 4 with wave 5 coming soon and taking us to 1040 before the bigger corrective rally arrives, or we had a failed 5th down and we are entering the beginning of C of an ABC corrective of the big move off the top at 1370.
It really could go either way.. the timing works out both ways. If its a wave 4.. then we'll have a fall sell off and then the big rally off the low 1000's will be a end of year Xmas rally. If it's a big corrective now, we'll plunge soon, again in the fall, except a much worse plunge and then again a big corrective around Xmas time.
The biggest reasoning I have that we are in a larger corrective right now that will see 1265 or so, is that the MACD on the daily still has not really corrected itself. I have that circled in the chart. If we can climb that MACD back up to a low positive number off -12, I think we'll be primed and ready for another crash.
Either way.. it's coming folks. 2012 will be a rough year.
GL
CJ
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