Just above us is a long standing trendline at 1325ish. Hard to pinpoint because it is so old, so I would put it in the 1320-1330 range. A fake breakout over 1330 would not be surprising.
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Key Levels
Upside -- 1320-1330
Downdside -- 1288, 1279, 1257, 1246, 1220
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SPX Daily (5 year)
This is where our big trendline is coming from. It is hanging around somewhere in the 1320-1330 range. It's such a long time frame that it's a little loose and thats why the 10 point range. It also would not shock me if we had a false breakout over it just before the market fails and heads south very quickly breaking the bottom of this very large triangle.
I believe we are within 25 points of topping. We could maybe false break as high as 1350, but I dont think that's going to happen, I just don't think there's enough power left in this rally to get that high.
The MACD is up to almost 17. 24 is a decade high on the MACD, there simply isn't much room left. The stochs are rolling in overbought up around 90.
Rather than feeling like a powerful rally, this just feels like a market that is refusing to roll over. Essentially just wearing out the shorts and clearning the market and pulling in a few bulls before rolling over.
Short interest is at a low point here, so I think we are at the stage of pulling in some bulls before we turn.
There still could be a fall and one last surge and this could drag out another month and a half, but we are so close to that 1320-1330 range, unless we really fall hard tomorrow, I think we are going to continue up to that range and then put in that top soon.
GL
CJ
1 comment:
Now its a game who blinks first. Stretching the rally on no volume is basically making bear's resolve much stronger. The point it rolls over will be a watershed moment.
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