02.16.2012 -- Still rolling over?

We had a new high in the S&P by less than a point and a new high in the NASDAQ today, but I still believe this is all part of a topping process and probably a larger topping process.

Tonights chart will show you exactly what happened today.

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Key Levels

Upside -- here, 2370

Downside -- 1345, 1300, 1290, 1257, 1250

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SPX Daily;

heres our latest chart again. notice how we hit the bottom of the bollingers, which was last support until a fall to 1300, and then bounced right back up to the edge of the rising wedge. That is where the market sat pretty much the rest of the day.

so we have a new high in the SPX and in the NAS, but in the end, we still have a DOW theory non-confirmation with the trannies not making new highs yet and we are still within our rising wedge and have not broken out of it.

i suspect we'll ride the top of the wedge or maybe have a false breakout of it here for OPEX.

we may not though.. in the past it has not been unusual for the market to choose a day like OPEX to fall apart at major tops. I just don't think we are quite there yet. We need more selling to creep in and volitility to rise and then AFTER that happens.. probably another run to make people think we are going to rally again after consolidating and that is the point where it can all fall apart.

as long as the S&P, IWM and Trannies arent making new highs.. we have divergences in the market including a DOW theory non-confirmation that are screaming things are not well.

GL

CJ