02.23.2012 -- More of the same..

Nothing much changed today. We bounced off the mid-bollinger bands yet again and are continuing to ride up the top of the wedge.

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Key Levels

Upside -- 1360-1370

Downside -- 1354, 1347, 1310, 1298, 1257

support continues to rise while the market is stalling and gyrating. We are now at the point that a 105 point sell off in the S&P would put the market below all support.

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SPX Daily;

Not much to add today from our recent view. We continue to ride up the top of the wedge. We bounced off the mid-bollinger bands yet again which of course resulted in another trip to the top of the wedge.

We have a shot here to get a false break higher out of this wedge and then I would wager a collapse would be right behind it.

One change that I did not mark is that I think the EW count has changed for this particular rally that began just before christmas. It appears it is a wave structure in which we have a very large first wave, a much smaller 3rd wave and we are now in wave 5. I believe wave 5 is a micro copy of the entire structure. If so, there are 2 very small waves left.. a very small sell off and then one more very small lift. Under that count, that would complete the rally.

If my current count is right, I would guess sometime around next Wednesday could be a target for the end of this, but as usual EW counts can morph and can vary quite a bit from person to person attempting a count. Its not a primary indicator for me, but it does at the moment match all other technicals that this rally is nearing a major end.

GL

CJ