Wednesday, May 4, 2011

05.04.2011 Update Crossfire

We flirted today with breaking our important trendline, but ended the day closing above it.

The Elliot count could go either way right now, so it doesn't do us much good. We could be done with only A of an ABC and we started B this afternoon. Or we could be completely done with the full ABC correction. There's simply no way to tell, which is often the case with short term EW analysis.

We just have to watch the market here and see what happens. This is typically a good place to be flat and just watch and wait. Regardless of the above EW count, we should continue bouncing a bit into tomorrow. Whether we are finishing B or the the full ABC is over.

After that becomes a split decision, continue with the correction or we shoot higher to continue the rally. The decision will probably be made tomorrow and the next move up or down (after drifting higher a bit tomorrow), will be a pretty strong move either way.

First chart tonight is the S&P, showing how we closed above the important trendline, how I believe we will drift higher and then reach a decision point of where the market heads next. The important trendline will remain key;



Second chart is the Transports. They took a whacking today, about double the loss of the other indicies. Transports were up strong when oil was rallying and now today was very weak with oil down 2%. More than a bit confusing to me, and it's still important to track what the transports do here going forward;



A thrid chart for tonight is IYR (DJ Real Estate ETF), it appears that it has put in some type of top. It's definitely in a down channel now and below that down channel there is not much support on a 20 day chart;



lets see what happens next.

GL

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