05.10.2011 Update Plunge tomorrow?

I want to preface this with the fact that I of course could be TOTALLY wrong and we have every reason to just rocket higher here. But the good news is that it would not take much north to blow my short term theory here and we just go higher. So it's not a bad spot to throw on a short and see where we are at in the morning.

If we get over 1365 on the cash.. my short term call here is probabl blown.

Based on the short term EW count, we followed my path north of the 2 options yesterday pretty exactly. We also ended at the trendline precisely where I thought we would. We also have what looks like 5 waves in the C part of a correction. (the correction of the correction from a few posts ago). So I think we do a 180 here and do a little plunge trip straight down to the bottom of our channel around 1312 or so.

Here is the short term S&P chart (20 day / 30 min.) it includes my current EW count and what I think are the important trendlines and the fact that we are at the tippy top of a rising wedge and the MACD and Stochs are overbought;



Long term... I've gone back and looked and it unfortunately (if you are a bear) is possible that we may in fact have not even topped the 3rd wave of Supercycle C wave. We could do quite a plunge for what could be the 4th wave and still be in the rising channel for Supercycle C. This is not my top count, and I haven't seen anyone really even mention it as a possibility, but to me, it has to be considered as a possible ALT.

So to offset the bearish enthusiasm that we might plunge starting tomorrow for a bit, i'm including this chart to illustrate that we may in fact be many months from completing this rally. We would have to fall below the large channel to discount its possibility.

Chart is a Daily / 2 year;



GL tomorrow.