Monday, June 20, 2011

06.20.2011 -- Bangin the Bottom of the Bollingers

Sorry for the weekend pause, was getting in some needed Fathers Day rest.

There's only 1 chart for today, because that's all we really need, but first a few words.

Everything still looks like crap, the financials (XLF) are about to get a death cross, the NAS is weak while the buying heads into the DOW. That is a sign of distribution of big players for the high growth tech names and into large liquid behemoths. Apple appears to be rolling over, leaders like BIDU and PCLN look like crap. Amazon and Google have been looking like crap.

IYR seems to be getting a bid here, but that's not unexpected considering the REIT's are paying dividends at much higher rates than treasuries. The ignoring of the book value of their assets though is stunning.

End of story, everything looks like crap except defensive names and dividend payers.

That said, we look like we are about to bounce here. It's normal, it's all part of forming a top which as I've said many times, takes TIME. Sometimes lots of time. We need time for the moving averages to compress and time for the 50 to cross under the 200 and give us a bear market signal.

All that's stopping us for a big bounce is the bottom of the bollinger bands. We closed right on the bottom today. Just a few more points and we'll shoot up into it and burn off some oversold on the daily. If we break through the bottom of the bollingers, we'll have another 20-40 points coming on the north side.

Here's a visual; (the gray area is the bollinger band)


So there you have it.

GL

CJ

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