The DOW is still about a 250 point drop from the 200, so it might have a bit of catching up to do here.
I'm still short TNA, my stop has been moved down to 70.25. That represents a locked in gain of 20% minimum on this trade.
My IWM target is 77$.
I would probably not start a new position here, I think it would be best to let this selloff exhaust itself and then play the bounce. But if I must short something here, it would be the DOW.
We are obviously very oversold, but that can stay that way always for longer than you would expect. This is itchy trigger finger zone though.
We are awfully close to resistance, but I wonder if we'll have a good bounce first and then head back down to finish this off in the target areas. Have to be nimble here.
Charts... you will plainly see how close we are to some major support in these;
The S&P will soon be dealing with a couple trendlines of support and the 200dma.
IWM is within 1% of 2 forms of support;
IYR finally lost it's support but really plunged and is now within only a couple percent of more support;
The VIX finally perked up a bit on Friday. Even just corrections must cause some elevated level of fear before they can bottom. The VIX just now perking up makes me think there still may be a lot of calendar time left in this selloff, but not much room left in the S&P unless we start cracking 200dmas.
If nothing else, the rest of this year should be interesting. Elliot Wave analysis is predicting anything from new highs this fall... to market going to zero in 2012. In the case of McHugh, he's calling for new highs AND the market going to near zero by 2014.
In my relatively short 14 years of following the markets, i've never experienced a market this bi-polar with a tag that literally anything could happen in the next 12 months. S&P 1600 or S&P 150... there's a case to be made for both.
Put yer helmets on.
GL
CJ
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