--------------------
The market managed to climb back up into our bollinger bands and now we have a clear falling bull wedge to end wave 5.
I, however, am not sure wave 5 is done with us yet. I think a big reversal may be in store tomorrow as you will see in the chart below.
If we do happen to rally again tomorrow and close up and out of our falling bull wedge, then wave 5 of 1 of Supercycle C is over and we're starting a pretty big rally for Wave 2 of super C. I just don't think we are quite there yet.
----------------------
Key Levels
Upside -- right where we are again, 1162, 1183
Downside -- 1120, 1098, 1077
----------------------
SPX Daily;
There's our wedge and a prevous trendline from the old sideways channel. We are basically sitting right on both of those. That's what leads me to believe that we will reverse tomorrow and with the closest support at 1120, it might be a hard reversal.
I still believe we are going to finish wave 5 somewhere in the bottom half of the 1000's on the S&P.
If we were to close up and above this falling wedge tomorrow, then the big wave 2 rally has begun. Target is probalby the 1250 price point we were looking for before.
I still either want to short 1250 or buy 1040.
-------------------------
Not much else of note today except the finnies were weak and certain momo growth stocks were weak despite the rally. This looks more like short squeezing going on than any real broad based buying. The losses/big gains are very erratic and have no consistency. Before we would see AMZN, LULU, CMG, AAPL, etc.. all surge on broad based buying. Now you get very mixed results on big up days. Just looks like selective stocks short squeezing and the rest just sort of muddle around.
-------------------------
Just a quick map of my thoughts right now...
Bottom of wave 5 in about 2-3 weeks at 1020 or so.
Wave 2 lasts through xmas and takes us to 1250 or so.
Wave 3 down of Supercycle C down starts sometime in January. That particular round of selling will take us from the 1200's to the low 600s. Yes... a 50% market slashing at the beginning of next year.
My ultimate target for the bottom of Wave 5 of Supercycle C is S&P 415 sometime late next summer.
GL
CJ
No comments:
Post a Comment