Tuesday, October 18, 2011

10.18.2011 -- Intentionally blank...

I'm not even going to hazard a guess what this market is going to do right now.

but.. Apple missing earnings may have sealed the short term fate, which will look a lot like the long term fate. The mid-term though is where things could go a bit crazy.

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Key Levels

Upside -- 1233, 1235, 1275

Downside -- 1200, 1191, 1174, 1165 (below 1165 has only one pit stop to 1077)

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SPX Daily;


We are stuck in a trading zone above the old channel and below the 100dma and old intra-day highs.

Todays close was not higher than the close 2 days ago.

Apple also missed earnings.

I have to think we are probably going to dip back into the channel and get our pullback now. But this market is psycho.. so who knows.. Europe might announce they found a field of mutant cows that eat bonds and shit euros.

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The mid-term is where things get hairy. Obviously after this pullback, we are likely to shoot higher. Where we stop is the question. I suspect somewhere between 1265 and 1325. Possibly closer to 1325.

Again, very dependent on news.. news doesn't change the outcome, but it can dramatically shift how we get there in the middle.

I got very slightly short at that last ramp to 1225. I will stay that way and hope to get shorter slowly as we cross 1250 and higher.

There tough part is we never really hit my buy target of 1040. Is 1077 close enough? Is this really wave 2 up?

Difficult questions at the moment, and hopefully will be answered when we get this pullback.

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Of note..

AMZN, LULU, PCLN, CMG, NFLX, etc... all down or flat today.

GL

CJ

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