Thursday, October 20, 2011

10.20.2011 -- News driven or noise?

Not much changed today, but I do have something to show you of interest.

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Key Levels

Upside -- 1222, 1223, 1274

Downside -- 1201, 1184, 1177

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SPX Daily (3 months)


So we were tanking in the morning and then a report came out that the German government spokesman was going to make an announcement about the ESFS around noon.

The market immediately reversed after that news and continued higher all the way until 1:30, the news was simply that any decision was being pushed until next week, the market sagged just a bit and then kept moving higher.

It's easy to say that all that was gyrations based on yappty yap yap coming out of Euro land.

But if you look at the chart. Look where the market bottom and reversed. Exactly pinpoint at the top of our channel.

Is it just coincidence that the news of the ESFS announcement came just as the market hit that point and reversed? Or can you really just find any piece of news and say that's what moved the market?

Does any of it really matter, or is it all just noise as the market will ultimately follow the path it is going to anyways?

Long term Elliot Wave analysis no matter how you count it, strongly points to us hitting S&P 500 or lower sometime in 2012, maybe 2013.

If you eliminate all the noise in the middle.. lets see how predictible the market really is.

GL

CJ

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